Emerging & Frontier Market Highlights
The Daily Market Update
October 2025
M T W T F S S
 12345
6789101112
13141516171819
20212223242526
2728293031  

Dominican Republic

The Dominican Republic’s central bank kept its key rate unchanged at 5.75% on Aug. 29, along with the overnight deposit rate at 4.50% and the 1-day repo at 6.25%. The Board noted headline inflation at 3.4% in July and core at 4.2%, both within the 4% ±1 band, and highlighted resilient fundamentals and stronger country risk metrics compared with peers.

Brazil

Brazil’s gross public debt rose to 77.6% of GDP (BRL 9.6 t;n) in July, up 0.9 ppt from June. The increase reflected nominal interest (+0.8 ppt), net issuance (+0.4 ppt), and exchange rate depreciation (+0.1 ppt), partially offset by nominal GDP growth (-0.4 ppt). Debt has risen 1.1 ppt YTD, mainly due to accrued interest (+5.1 ppt) and offsetting GDP effects (-3.6 ppt).

Zambia

Zambia’s inflation fell to 12.6% in August from 13% in July, its lowest in almost two years, as the kwacha strengthened 19% YTD on higher copper prices. Food inflation eased to 14.9% and non-food to 9.3%. The gap between the 14.5% policy rate and inflation widened to a six-year high, and policymakers signaled a possible rate cut in November.

Nigeria

Nigeria’s corporates increasingly issued short-term debt to avoid high long-term financing costs. From June 2024 to June 2025, companies raised NGN 1.8 tln(USD 1.2 bln) in maturities under one year, compared with NGN 197.3 bln in 2-7 year tenors, according to FMDQ data.

Mozambique

Mozambique approved projects worth over USD 4.2 bln in H1 2025, mainly in industry, agro-industry, and tourism. At the FACIM trade fair, officials highlighted South Africa’s role as a top investor and ‘country of honor.’ Bilateral trade exceeds USD 2 bln annually, supported by geographic and historical ties.

Ethiopia

Ethiopia signed a USD 2.5 bln agreement with Dangote to build a fertilizer plant with 3 mln tonnes annual capacity. The project, expected to be completed in about 40 months, will make Ethiopia one of the world’s largest fertilizer producers. Dangote will hold 60% ownership, with the state-owned Ethiopian Investment Holdings holding the remainder.

Egypt

Egypt’s central bank cut its key policy rates by 200 bps, lowering the overnight deposit rate to 22% and lending rate to 23%. The MPC cited stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP growth of 5.4% and easing inflation at 13.9% in July, with projections for continued disinflation. Growth was supported by non-petroleum manufacturing and tourism.

Algeria

Algeria’s President Tebboune dismissed Prime Minister Nadir Larbaoui and named Industry Minister Sifi Ghrieb as acting premier. Larbaoui, a former diplomat, was appointed in 2023, but state media offered no explanation for the leadership change.

Kazakhstan

The National Bank of Kazakhstan will raise minimum reserve requirements starting September, a move expected to absorb up to KZT 3.5 tln (USD 6.5 bln) in excess liquidity while curbing inflation and cooling rapid consumer lending growth. Chairman Suleimenov also noted banks have begun repaying past state support, with further repayments expected soon.

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan’s central bank held its policy rate at 16.5%, citing still-elevated inflation driven by fiscal support and consumer lending, while warning further tightening may be needed if disinflation stalls. It also raised its 2024 GDP growth forecast to 5.5–6.5% and expects the economy to converge to potential by 2027.

Georgia

Georgia’s GDP grew by 6.5% YoY in July, slightly up from 6.3% in June, and compared to an average of 8.0% growth rate this year so far.

Russia

German Chancellor Merz said a meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Vladimir Putin is unlikely, despite earlier suggestions from Donald Trump, while the US warned that Russia’s continued offensives undermine peace efforts. Meanwhile, Zelenskiy said he and European leaders will meet with Trump this week to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine, including financing, weapons, and NATO-style support.

Philippines

Philippines’ central bank cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 5.0%, its third straight reduction, after July inflation eased to a near six-year low of 0.9%. Q2 GDP growth accelerated to 5.5% YoY, the strongest in a year. The BSP maintained inflation forecasts of 1.7% in 2025, 3.3% in 2026, and 3.4% in 2027, but cautioned that energy and food prices could add risks.

Laos

Laos set September priorities focused on economic resilience, infrastructure, and stability following a two-day government meeting with provincial leaders. Inflation dropped to 5%, reserves covered nearly five months of imports, and revenues reached 47 trn kip, 69% of the 2025 target. Agriculture performed strongly, with rice planted on 97% of seasonal targets. Tourism surged, with 2.35 mln foreign arrivals in 8M25 (+12% YoY) and 2.46 mln domestic visitors (+46% YoY).

India

India’s GDP expanded 7.8% YoY in Q2 2025, accelerating from 7.4% in the prior quarter and surpassing expectations of 6.6%. Growth reached its fastest pace in five quarters, supported by stronger consumer spending as easing inflation improved household purchasing power.

Stay informed about our country webinars

West African CFA franc

Covering the recent political updates in UEMOA and ECOWAS, how they affect the XOF currency regime, and what it means for TCX lenders. We will also share insights on the local market and TCX’s pricing.

Madagascar

Providing feedback on recent macroeconomic and financial sector developments in the country, including the opportunities and challenges in the local currency, the malagasy ariary (MGA).

The Dominican Republic

Focusing on the macroeconomic and financial sector developments in, as well as touching on the opportunities and challenges for financing in the local currency, the Dominican peso (DOP).

Upcoming country webinars

– Iraq (IQD) – Q1 2025