South Africa is likely to miss its primary budget surplus target for FY23 by 8.2 bln rand (USD 448 mln) after revenue collections fell slightly short due to higher-than-expected value-added tax refunds. The country recorded a primary budget deficit of ZAR 1.5 bln for the fiscal year through March 2023. The narrow miss highlights the treasury’s ongoing struggle to align revenue and expenditure following South Africa’s public finance challenges and the pandemic’s impact on tax income and welfare payouts. Economists predict that the economy grew by 0.1% QoQ in the three months through March. The Treasury’s February forecast of 0.9% expansion for the current calendar year is more than triple the IMF’s and the central bank’s latest estimates.