Emerging-market bond bulls are wagering that the impending cessation of central bank interest-rate hikes will boost the asset class. However, the El Niño weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean could counteract this prediction. Markets most at risk include India, the Philippines, and Peru. According to some analysts, citing a model replicating past events, the pattern could raise inflation in Argentina and Brazil by an extra 0.75 pp and by 0.5 pp in India and the Philippines, potentially leading to stagflation.