Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan’s daily oil output dropped 4% in May, mostly due to lower Tengiz production (813,200 bpd, down from 885,000). Output remained above the 1.486 mln bpd OPEC+ quota. May CPI rose 11.3% YoY and 0.9% MoM, the highest annual print since Sept 2023. Central bank Governor Suleimenov signaled possible rate hikes amid overheating concerns. Consumer lending is expanding at 30–35%, with a VAT hike planned in 2026. Separately, Kazakhstan will receive USD 280 mln from the UN Green Climate Fund for green energy and sustainable projects.