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Peru’s bond issuance between January and August 2025 reached PEN 52.8 bln (USD 14.5 bln), equal to 4.6% of GDP, according to the finance ministry. Public issuers accounted for USD 9.8 bln and private issuers USD 4.7 bln. Sovereign spreads averaged 156 bps, among the lowest in Latin America, supported by debt at 32.1% of GDP and a fiscal deficit of 3.5%. Authorities target a further deficit cut to 2.2% by year-end.
Peru’s economic activity grew 4.52% YoY in June but is expected to moderate in July to 3.0%, per central bank economist Adrian Armas. Full H2 growth is forecast at 3.1% amid easing tariff-related uncertainty.
Peru’s central bank held its rate at 4.5% for a third month, citing near-target inflation at 1.7% and rising global trade restrictions. It is monitoring the impact of election uncertainty and US tariffs.
Peru’s presidential election in April could spark protests affecting MMG Ltd.’s Las Bambas copper mine, its most profitable asset, which has faced recurrent disruptions. Las Bambas, the largest copper mine in Peru, is the Chinese company’s most profitable asset, but its operations have been dogged by years of social unrest. The company is still clearing out inventories after road blockages last month interrupted the transport of semi-processed copper from the mine.
Peru is on track for record exports in 2025, with H1 shipments reaching USD 40.1 bln; copper exports rose 12.3% YoY to USD 12.6 bln, and gold exports jumped 45.7% to USD 8.57 bln amid higher prices.
Peru filed to issue new USD-denominated global bonds and launched an exchange offer for eligible outstanding USD bonds to be swapped into new 2036-dated paper or tendered for cash. BNP Paribas, Citi, HSBC, and Santander were appointed as global coordinators and bookrunners.
Peru’s central bank cut its 2025 hydrocarbon sector growth forecast to 4% from 5.5%, citing Q1 output declines and infrastructure damage from heavy rains that led to a gas supply emergency.
Peru’s central bank (BCRP) revised its 2025 growth forecast down to 3.1% from 3.2%, citing weak metallic mining. Primary GDP for 2026 was revised to 2.1%, down from 2.6%, with mining expectations slashed from 2% to 0.3%.
Peru’s economy grew just 1.4% YoY in April, missing forecasts due to sharp contractions in fishing (-24%) and agriculture (-8%). Weakness in these key sectors could derail the government’s 3.5% growth target. The central bank held rates at 4.5%.
Peru’s 12-month trade surplus hit a record USD 26.7 bln in April. Exports rose 12.4% YoY, led by fishmeal, fish oil, and metals. Non-traditional exports surged 40.3%, especially in fisheries and agriculture.
Peru’s business leaders remained short-term optimistic, but 12-month expectations weakened ahead of 2026 elections. BCRP projects 4.1% private investment growth in 2025, down from 8.8% in Q1, while its confidence survey remains above the 50-point optimism threshold.
UBS sees Peru missing its 2025 deficit target for a third straight year but believes risks to fiscal stability are limited. Debt remains low, and growth is resilient. UBS forecasts a deficit close to 3% of GDP.
Peru’s Finance Minister proposed raising the 2025 fiscal deficit ceiling to 2.8% from 2.2% to avoid slowing the economy. The change must be approved by Congress.
Peru’s Q1 GDP grew 3.9% YoY, slower than 4.9% in Q4 but marking the fifth straight expansion. Growth was driven by domestic demand (+4.4%) and strong exports (+14.2%). Manufacturing, construction, and transport sectors posted robust gains.
Peru’s President Boluarte promoted Justice Minister Eduardo Arana to Prime Minister after a failed cabinet reshuffle. Finance Minister Raul Perez-Reyes was reappointed.
Peru’s central bank forecasted 4.5% YoY growth in March, citing more business days vs. 2024. Q1 growth is expected at 4%. The bank recently cut its policy rate to 4.5% amid easing inflation and tariff risk.
Peru’s central bank is expected to cut its benchmark rate to 4.5% from 4.75% on May 8, according to Bloomberg analysts. The move is supported by inflation below target midpoint and tight monetary conditions, though uncertainty may limit further easing. Forward guidance is likely to stress data dependency. The government now expects 2025 GDP growth at 3.5%, down from 4%, per a Finance Ministry forecast.
Peru is seeking to attract investment from UAE sovereign wealth funds to support infrastructure development and expand trade ties. During an official visit to the UAE, Peru’s Foreign Minister Elmer Schialer highlighted the country’s solid economic performance and investment opportunities across various sectors. Both sides pledged to accelerate trade and investment cooperation and negotiate bilateral agreements.
Peru’s economy grew 2.7% YoY in February, below the 3.4% consensus. The government still targets 4% growth in 2025, though analysts expect 3%, below 2024’s 3.3% pace. The US has imposed a 10% tariff on Peruvian exports, potentially impacting blueberry and grape shipments. The central bank held its policy rate at 4.75% for the third consecutive month, citing rising trade-policy uncertainty.
Peru’s central bank held the policy rate steady at 4.75% amid uncertainty from US-China trade frictions. Inflation stands at 1.3% and is expected to rise to 2% in the coming months. The country is seeking to avoid a 10% US tariff on key exports and is forecasting 3% GDP growth, with the government aiming for 4%.
Peru’s trade surplus expanded to USD 2,109 mln in February 2025, up from USD 1,645 mln in the previous year. Exports increased by 15.2%, with both traditional and non-traditional products seeing strong growth. Imports grew more slowly by 9.6%, reflecting greater purchases of consumer, intermediate, and capital goods. The year-to-date trade surplus rose to USD 3,982 mln, with exports up 20.9%.
Peru’s annual inflation likely cooled to 1.2% in March, down from 1.5% in February, which is below the central bank’s forecasts. The decline is attributed to lower food and beverage inflation, with energy rates also showing a slight reduction. Excluding food and energy, the inflation rate is expected to decrease slightly to around 2.0%. Inflation is anticipated to rebound in April and May.
Peru’s central bank revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 3.2%, up from 3.0%, though still below the government’s target of 4%. Central bank chief Julio Velarde mentioned that achieving the government’s target is “feasible,” but current conditions suggest it won’t happen. The central bank maintained its inflation outlook at 2.0% for both 2025 and 2026, and expects the fiscal deficit to meet legal ceilings for 2025 and 2026.
Peru is experiencing its deadliest start to the year, with 368 homicides in the first two months, more than three times higher than the same period in 2017. President Dina Boluarte declared a 30-day state of emergency in Lima to combat rising crime, including extortion rackets. The government is considering introducing the death penalty and mandatory military and police service. However, these efforts have been met with criticism, with some arguing that states of emergency have been ineffective in reducing crime and infringe on civil liberties.
The Peruvian government plans to declare a state of emergency and deploy the military to combat rising crime in Lima after the murder of Paul Flores, a vocalist in a popular cumbia band, fueled protests against extortion rackets. These rackets have been impacting various sectors, including public transportation, shops, and schools. Despite ongoing protests, President Dina Boluarte’s administration has struggled to effectively address the situation.
Peru’s central bank kept its interest rates unchanged at 4.75% on Thursday, as policymakers assess the inflationary impact of global trade wars. The bank noted positive local inflation trends but highlighted increased global economic risks due to the uncertainty surrounding restrictive foreign trade measures. In February, Peru’s annual inflation slowed to 1.5%, with expectations for it to further cool to around 1% in March. The bank forecasts a 3% economic expansion for 2025. Meanwhile, Peru is preparing to send a delegation to the US to prevent tariffs on its copper exports.
Peru is sending a delegation to the US to address new copper tariffs announced by the Trump administration. Peru aims to minimize the impact of tariffs, highlighting its free trade agreements with the US and its role as the world’s third-largest copper supplier. The country emphasizes openness to investment and trade with all nations.
Bloomberg analysts expect Peru’s central bank to keep the benchmark rate at 4.75% at its March 13 meeting. Tight monetary conditions provide room for future cuts, but policymakers are cautious due to rising domestic demand and global economic uncertainty. Inflation has decelerated, but risks remain regarding growth and inflation, supporting a cautious approach.
Peru’s Inflation slowed to 1.48% YoY in February, down from 1.85% in January. The central bank expects inflation to continue cooling and approach 1% in March, with a forecast of 2% by the year’s end. Peru’s government remains optimistic about a 4% GDP growth in 2025, aided by controlled inflation and stable interest rates.
Peru’s finance ministry forecasts a 4% growth in 2025, supported by new investment projects, deregulation, improved business confidence, low inflation, and favorable financing conditions. Growth is also bolstered by high raw material prices.
