Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan central bank is examining the possibility of revising its inflation target higher. The current inflation target is set at 4-5%, and the proposed new target is 5-7%. Inflation presently stands at over 18% YoY, but it should slow down materially in the coming months due to the strong base effect from last year. Nevertheless, the country has not seen inflation within the 4-5% target range since early 2019. This apparent lack of progress may be due to loose fiscal policy and structural issues with National Oil Fund spending. The comment appears to reflect the bank’s acceptance of these structural issues and its limited appetite to force inflation toward the current target.