Colombia’s fiscal board oversight committee, CARF, predicts a larger-than-anticipated deficit for 2024, potentially breaching fiscal rule targets. CARF suggests a spending reduction of about 1.4% of GDP to achieve the -0.2% GDP structural net primary balance goal. Despite the potential litigation revenue of COP 15 tln, the deficit is expected to rise to 5.1% of GDP in 2024, up from 4.4% this year. That would mark the fifth consecutive year of fiscal deficits exceeding 4% of GDP, influencing the country’s risk premium.