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Nigeria’s inflation slowed for a second month to 23% YoY in May, down from 23.7%, supported by stable currency and energy costs. Core inflation dropped to 22.3%, while food inflation eased slightly to 21.1%, aiding policy clarity after January’s data revamp.
Costa Rica aims to conclude tariff relief talks with the US within weeks, targeting zero tariffs after new 10% baseline levies were imposed by Washington. The trade minister said the deal could shape broader US–Latin America engagement.
Azerbaijan’s sovereign rating was affirmed by Fitch, citing a strong external balance sheet and low debt, but flagged weak governance and oil dependence. SOFAZ assets are expected to stabilize around USD 62 bln (79.3% of GDP), while current account surpluses may fall to 5.3% of GDP in 2025 and 4.9% in 2026. Fiscal deficits are projected due to Karabakh reconstruction costs and lower oil prices.
Serbia’s FX reserves fell EUR 306.5 mln in May to EUR 27.4 bln, but still covered 6.6 months of imports and 167% of M1. Net reserves also remained strong, despite monthly decline.
Nigeria’s central bank barred banks under regulatory forbearance from paying dividends, issuing director bonuses, or investing abroad until they exit forbearance and meet capital standards. The measure aims to build buffers amid inflation and FX pressure.
Argentina’s monthly inflation dropped to 1.5% in May, the lowest since 2020, bringing YoY inflation to 43.5% from 211% when Milei took office. The fall reflects Milei’s austerity, including ministry cuts, public layoffs, and partial removal of FX controls.
Paraguay posted a USD 538 mln trade deficit in May, reversing a USD 421 mln surplus a year earlier. Exports dropped 8.4% YoY, led by a 26.8% fall in soybean shipments. Industrial exports rose modestly, driven by beef, aluminum, and cables.
Peru’s 12-month trade surplus hit a record USD 26.7 bln in April. Exports rose 12.4% YoY, led by fishmeal, fish oil, and metals. Non-traditional exports surged 40.3%, especially in fisheries and agriculture.
Vietnam and the US scheduled a virtual meeting to continue trade talks and prepare for higher-level negotiations between their commerce ministers. Both sides agreed to push technical teams to reach an agreement swiftly, according to Vietnam’s trade ministry.
Nepal reported a drop in inflation to 2.77% in mid-May 2025, according to the Nepal Rastra Bank.
Serbia’s central bank kept its key policy rate at 5.75%, citing uncertainty regarding protectionist measures and its impact on inflation and growth. The decision came as inflation eased, with the consumer price-index dropping to 3.8% in May, and economic growth slowed to 2% in the first quarter. The central bank revised its forecast for growth this year to 3.5% from 4.5%, citing political unrest, global trade tensions, and weaker external demand.
Kenya’s lawmakers approved a plan to raise KES 125 bln for road projects using fuel import taxes as collateral. While it provides short-term liquidity, MPs warned of long-term risks to public finances from tying up future revenues.
Uganda’s FY25/26 budget is UGX 72.4 tln , with domestic revenue covering 60%. Public debt reached UGX 116 tln (~USD 30 bln) by June 2025, split between USD 15.5 bln in external and USD 16 bln in domestic debt. Economic growth is projected at 7%, up from 6.3% in FY24/25.
Costa Rica’s IMAE rose 3.4% MoM in April, rebounding from March’s drop and reaching a record high. Manufacturing and construction led gains. YoY growth reached 3.5% in April and 4.3% for 4M25. Debt fell below 60% of GDP, aided by years of strong growth. BCCR cut its 2025 growth forecast to 3.6%, while the IMF projects 3.4%.
US stocks declined Thursday with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down 0.2%, and Dow down 230 pts. Market jitters followed Trump’s plan to impose unilateral tariffs on trade partners post a 90-day pause, despite his claim of a “great” deal with China. PPI data came in below expectations. Utilities outperformed while energy, industrials, and financials lagged.
Mongolia’s CPI rose 8.3% YoY in May, led by higher food and import prices. Meat prices increased 8.3%, housing and utilities jumped 21.5%, and imported goods contributed 2.3 ppt to inflation. This marked the third consecutive month of slowing headline inflation.
Ethiopia planned to boost 2025–26 spending by 34% to 1.928 tln birr, with a budget deficit of 2.2% of GDP. Revenues are expected to rise 62% to 1.511 tln birr. Growth is projected at 8.9% with average inflation of 11.9%.
Ghana urged the US to renew AGOA beyond its 2025 expiry, citing trade and investment benefits, especially in textiles. Ghana voiced concern over Trump’s new 10% global tariffs and potential fallout for African exporters.
Kenya’s central bank cut rates by 25 bps to 9.75% for a sixth straight time, citing subdued inflation (3.8% in May) and the need to support lending. The CBK aims to stabilize FX and keep inflation expectations anchored.
Mozambique’s GDP shrank 3.9% YoY in Q1 2025, down from -5.7% in Q4 2024, due to political tensions and weather shocks. May inflation rose marginally to 4.0% YoY from 3.99%.
Zambia’s finance minister projected 6% GDP growth in 2025, citing good rainfall and rising metal production. This would mark the fastest growth since 2021 as the country exits debt distress.
Argentina’s bonds rallied after the central bank introduced measures to boost USD reserves and clean up its balance sheet, including allowing USD bond purchases, scrapping holding period rules for foreigners, and launching a second repo deal with lenders.
Brazil’s annual inflation eased to 5.32% in May, in line with expectations. Monthly inflation was 0.26%, reducing rate hike bets, though officials still flagged risks. Interest rates remain near two-decade highs.
Colombia reportedly moved to suspend its fiscal rule for three years, according to Blu Radio. The finance ministry declined comment, but Finance Minister Avila had earlier signaled such a move was being considered.
Pakistan unveiled a budget targeting a 2.4% primary surplus of GDP, above the IMF-agreed 1.6%, by slashing spending and raising taxes. Asset prices remained strong, with the KSE-100 index up 6% YTD, as markets welcomed adherence to IMF conditions despite growth trade-offs.
Kazakhstan’s crude oil exports were projected to remain near record highs in July, with CPC Blend shipments from Russia’s Black Sea port estimated at 1.65–1.75 mln b/d. Rising production has fueled OPEC+ tensions, but officials stated output limits cannot be forced on foreign investors, with Kashagan development continuing.
Bangladesh’s government continues to advance major infrastructure projects including the Padma Bridge, Matarbari Port, and Dhaka Metro, with the Padma Bridge alone expected to add 1.2 percentage points to GDP growth; household electrification reached 100% in 2022, supporting medium-term growth momentum.
India’s central bank cut the repo rate by 50 bps to 5.5% on June 6 and lowered the CRR by 1 percentage point to stimulate credit growth; while Q4 FY25 GDP came in at 7.4%, full-year growth stood at 6.5%, and Deloitte forecasts 6.3-6.5% for FY25, with markets reacting positively as the Sensex jumped 747 points despite USD 1.05 bln (INR 8,749 crore) in FPI outflows.
Laos’ economy grew 4.5% YoY in Q1 2025, led by agriculture (+3.1%) and services (+4.7%), while customs revenue rose 4.3%; ADB forecasts 3.9% growth for 2025 as inflation falls from 23.3% to ~13.5%, but high euro-lization and fragile banking sector pose ongoing risks.
Myanmar’s economy remains in freefall post-coup, with FY24-25 GDP down ~1% after an 18% drop in 2021; inflation remains high, poverty affects 77% of households, and FDI has collapsed from USD 5 bln to USD 662 mln, as the country increasingly relies on illicit trade and military-driven policies.
