| M | T | W | T | F | S | S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
| 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
| 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 |
| 29 | 30 | |||||
Rwanda’s central bank raised the policy rate by 25 bps to 6.75%, aiming to anchor inflation within the 2%-8% target. The monetary policy committee stated it will monitor risks closely and stands ready to adjust if stability is threatened.
Argentina’s Lower House narrowly upheld President Milei’s veto of an opposition-backed pension hike estimated at ca. 0.9% of GDP, with just 34% of lawmakers present supporting the veto, barely above the one-third threshold required. The opposition meanwhile secured a two-thirds majority to override the veto on a disability bill (ca. 0.3% of GDP), which now advances to the Senate, and lawmakers also approved a transfer of federal funds to provinces, though insufficient to guarantee override power.
Argentina’s President Milei reiterated the administration’s commitment to draining liquidity ahead of elections, with policy aimed at keeping real rates elevated. Short-term repo operations averaged 52%, while ARS Lecaps maturing before October traded above 60% YTM, equivalent to monthly yields above 4%. With inflation projected at 1.7%-1.8% per month, real monthly rates stood near 2.4%, implying ca. 33% annualized. Market volatility in short-term rates persisted, though the overall bias remained upward.
Bolivia’s presidential candidate Jorge ‘Tuto’ Quiroga, advancing to the Oct. 19 runoff with ca. 28% of the first-round vote, outlined a reform agenda including privatizations, fiscal consolidation, and constitutional change to reduce the state’s entrenched economic role.
Dominican Republic’s government submitted a budget amendment widening the 2025 deficit target to 3.5% of GDP, up 0.5ppt, primarily through a 20% increase in capital spending (0.4% of GDP). Authorities said additional financing needs would be covered by accumulated deposits. The economy grew 2.4% YoY in H1 2025, slowing sharply from 5% in 2024. The central bank launched a liquidity facility worth 1% of GDP in June to support credit.
India signaled defiance against US tariff pressure, with officials calling Washington’s proposed 25% levy on imports from Aug. 27 “unreasonable” and pledging to maintain Russian crude purchases. India imports more than 1.6 mln barrels per day from Russia, representing over one-third of its crude supply, with Urals offering discounts to Brent and Dubai and a favorable yield of middle distillates.
Philippines’ central bank is expected to lower its key rate by 25 bps to 5% on Aug. 28, moving closer to neutral amid softening growth prospects and benign inflation. Household consumption has remained resilient thanks to a strong labor market and subdued price pressures, but capital investment faces risks from US tariff shifts. Headline inflation remains under the 2%-4% target, with June projections at 1.6% for 2025 and 3.4% for 2026, leaving scope for further easing.
Thailand is set to benefit from Netflix’s expansion, as the company boosted local production following more than USD 200 mln in investments over four years. Malobika Banerji, head of Southeast Asia content, highlighted new initiatives to train Thai storytellers. The national film board approved cash rebates worth 845 mln baht for seven foreign productions with a combined investment of 4.5 bln baht.
Kazakhstan’s Baiterek National Holding plans to issue USD 500 mln in USD bonds, and USD 186 mln equivalent in local currency bonds, the government has announced. The proceeds will be used to fund industrialization, exports, and improving the agriculture sector.
Angola’s oil output fell below 1 mln barrels per day in July, reaching 998,757 bpd, its lowest since March 2023, according to official petroleum agency data. Oil Minister Diamantino Pedro Azevedo called reversing the decline the government’s “biggest challenge,” with revenues pressured as crude trades under the USD 70 benchmark in the 2025 budget.
Botswana’s central bank indicated scope to maintain accommodative policy, with Governor Cornelius Dekop noting inflation is projected at 3.5% in 2025 and 5.9% in 2026, compared with 2.7% and 4.6% at the June MPC meeting. Inflation is expected to temporarily exceed the target range in 2Q 2026 before moderating, while output is projected to remain below capacity in the medium term, limiting demand-driven price pressures.
Kenya’s Treasury announced plans to refinance over USD 5 bln in Eurobonds maturing by 2034, including urgent repurchase of USD 1 bln in 2028 notes. Treasury Secretary John Mbadi said authorities are also renegotiating near-term obligations with the Trade and Development Bank. Market reaction was positive, with yields on 2028 bonds down 25 bps and those on 2034 bonds down 12 bps by mid-afternoon in London.
India and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) signed terms of reference to begin Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations in Moscow. The move follows Trump’s announcement to double tariffs on Indian exports (from 25% to 50%), effective August 27, and comes shortly after India’s new FTA with the UK. Talks with the EU are also ongoing.
Bank Indonesia cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 5.0% at its August 2025 meeting, surprising markets and marking the fifth cut since September 2024. Inflation remains within the 2.5% ± 1% target, while GDP growth accelerated to 5.12% in Q2, the strongest in two years. The Rupiah held steady, supported by stable external balances.
Azerbaijan’s government has cut its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 3.7% to 3%, while also revising expected non-oil growth down to 4.6% and inflation up to 5.4%. This follows slower-than-expected growth of 0.9% in January-July 2025.
Ghana’s cedi remains Africa’s best-performing currency in 2025, with a year-to-date gain of 35.5% against the USD, underpinned by fiscal discipline and progress on debt restructuring. Inflation dropped to 12.1% in July, its lowest since October 2021, further supporting confidence.
Nigeria’s Agriculture Minister Abubakar Kyari highlighted the USD 10 bln annual food import bill as unsustainable, urging a shift toward agricultural exports to achieve food sovereignty. Despite agriculture accounting for 25% of GDP and 35% of employment, Nigeria captures less than 0.5% of global agricultural exports while relying heavily on imports of staples like wheat and rice.
Senegal’s Eurobonds came under renewed pressure as investors await an IMF staff mission to address USD 7 bln of misreported debt uncovered by the new administration. This led to the suspension of a USD 1.8 bln IMF loan and an S&P downgrade, heightening concerns about fiscal sustainability.
South Africa’s annual inflation accelerated slightly to 3.5% in July 2025, the second consecutive monthly increase and the highest in ten months. Core inflation edged up to 3.0%, while consumer prices rose 0.9% month-on-month, the sharpest monthly gain since February.
Tunisia’s FX reserves grew to TND 24.23 bln (USD 8.39 bln), covering 105 days of imports. The boost came from higher remittances (+8.2%), stronger tourism revenues (+10.5%), and lower imports of key foodstuffs. However, the trade deficit widened 23.9% YoY to TND 11.9 bln (USD 4.9 bln), and the current account deficit rose to 1.9% of GDP from 1.2% last year.
Argentina’s trade surplus narrowed to USD 988 mln in July 2025, down from USD 1.459 bln a year earlier but still the highest surplus of the year and above expectations. Imports surged 17.7% y/y to USD 6.7 bln, led by capital and consumer goods, while YTD surpluses reached USD 3.75 bln versus USD 12.2 bln in 2024.
India’s rupee traded around 87.1 per USD on Wednesday, holding its biggest gain in over a month and staying near a three-week high. The improvement came as easing US tariff risks and optimism over New Delhi’s tax reforms boosted sentiment. Hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, following President Trump’s pledge of US security guarantees for Kyiv, also contributed to improved risk appetite. Domestically, Prime Minister Modi’s proposal to cut Goods and Services Tax, the most sweeping reform in eight years, reinforced expectations for stronger consumption and revived foreign portfolio inflows. The RBI’s interventions and the unwinding of long dollar positions helped stabilize the currency despite broader dollar strength.
Nepal received pledged FDI worth 24.1 bln rupees (172.3 mln USD) in the first month of FY2025/26, a sharp rise from just 597.6 mln rupees in the same period last year. The commitments cover 127 projects, expected to generate more than 8,200 jobs. The ICT sector accounted for the highest number of projects, while agriculture and forestry led in pledged amounts.
Pakistan’s Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said the economy is poised to enter a growth phase after achieving macroeconomic stability. He expressed confidence that growth momentum will continue without returning to the boom-bust cycle. Pakistan recorded 2.7% GDP growth in FY2024/25 versus 2.5% in FY2023/24 and a contraction in FY2022/23. The government has set a target of 4.2% growth for FY2025/26.
Kazakhstan’s annual inflation held steady at 11.8% in July, the same rate as the previous month, with food and non-food prices moving up while service inflation slowed. The central bank will meet next at the end of August.
Ghana’s high unemployment and underemployment require urgent, targeted policy action, according to the World Bank’s latest Ghana Economic Update. The report stresses that without decisive interventions in three critical areas, the country will struggle to create sustainable jobs and attract private investment. It warns that relying solely on public spending or temporary fixes will fall short, particularly with thousands of young people entering the workforce annually.
Egypt plans to issue local sukuk in the first half of the current fiscal year as part of efforts to diversify funding sources and reduce debt burdens. The government also aims to roll out new financing, savings and investment instruments while focusing on lowering debt and extending maturities.
Lebanon is expected to prioritize clearing outstanding Eurobond arrears as part of its debt restructuring plan, according to S&P. The country remains in default since 2020, having not serviced principal or interest on Eurobonds. The government formed in February 2025 has adopted new laws required for IMF support and aims to accelerate restructuring, building on recurring budget surpluses and improved fiscal buffers.
Mozambique will begin earning 5 mln USD per month from November through the export of 50 megawatts of electricity from Tete province to Malawi. Revenues could double to 10 mln USD monthly if Malawi were to import 100 megawatts, but foreign exchange shortages in Lilongwe are limiting capacity. ESCOM’s CEO Kankwamba Kumwenda warned that payment methods will be a challenge, given Malawi’s limited reserves, and said renegotiations may require payments in dollars.
S&P Ratings affirmed Tajikistan’s B sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook, supported by strong remittances, gold prices, and record reserves. Risks persist from reliance on Russia, delays in Rogun hydropower financing, and state-owned enterprise contingent liabilities, though concessional debt keeps near-term debt servicing costs manageable.
