Nigeria’s annual inflation slowed for a fourth straight month to 21.9% in July from 22.2% in June. Bloomberg Economics says if this trend holds into Q3, the CBN may begin cutting rates as early as September.
August 19, 2025
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Nigeria’s annual inflation slowed for a fourth straight month to 21.9% in July from 22.2% in June. Bloomberg Economics says if this trend holds into Q3, the CBN may begin cutting rates as early as September.
Tunisia’s economy grew 3.2% y/y in Q2 2025, led by agriculture (+9.8%) and manufacturing (+3.9%). Services rose 1.9%, and domestic demand was up 3.3%. Exports dropped 9.6% while imports grew 8.9%, according to INS data. GDP for Q2 reached 24.8 bln dinars (~8.6 bln USD).
Zambia’s central bank kept its key rate at 14.5%, maintaining a cautious stance to anchor inflation. SocGen expects the BoZ to keep policy steady into early 2026 before easing.
Paraguayan Analysts in the central bank’s monthly survey kept their year-end policy rate forecast at 6%, with expectations of 5.75% in December 2026. Inflation forecasts for 2025–26 were unchanged.
The People’s Bank of China renewed a 70 bln yuan (9.81 bln USD) bilateral currency swap with the Bank of Thailand, valid for five years. The deal is intended to facilitate trade, investment, and financial stability.
India’s 10Y G-Sec yield rose toward 6.5%, a four-month high, as Modi’s sweeping GST tax cuts stoked fiscal and debt-supply concerns despite an S&P upgrade. Risk appetite was boosted by hopes of a Russia-Ukraine deal after Trump met Putin, though Washington still plans a 25% tariff on Indian goods tied to Russian oil. The RBI’s upcoming bond auction will test demand and liquidity conditions.
Malaysia’s trade surplus widened to MYR 15 bln in July, the largest since March, from MYR 6.4 bln a year earlier, beating forecasts of MYR 5.7 bln. Exports rose 6.8% YoY to MYR 140.4 bln, driven by manufacturing (+9.0%), while imports edged up 0.6% to MYR 125.5 bln, supported by capital goods (+20.6%). For Jan-Jul, the surplus reached MYR 70.3 bln, with exports up 4.3% and imports 5.1%.
Pakistan’s central bank has halved its policy rate to 11% since June 2024 and is expected to ease another 100 bps this fiscal year, according to model forecasts. The SBP kept rates on hold in July, but analysts see further cuts if inflation moderates.
S&P Ratings affirmed Tajikistan’s B sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook, supported by strong remittances, gold prices, and record reserves. Risks persist from reliance on Russia, delays in Rogun hydropower financing, and state-owned enterprise contingent liabilities, though concessional debt keeps near-term debt servicing costs manageable.
Fitch affirmed Angola’s long-term sovereign credit rating at ‘B-’ and short-term at ‘B’, with a stable outlook. Fitch noted weakening fiscal positions and large funding needs over the next 12 months, but these are balanced by FX buffers and oil revenues expected to remain supportive through 2028. Risks include debt-servicing pressures or further exchange rate shocks. A positive rating move would require stronger, sustained growth and reduced debt-servicing costs.
Botswana’s economy faces a challenging second half of 2025, with forecasts from consultancy Econsult pointing to GDP growth between -1% and 0%, following a sharper 3% contraction in 2024. Rising inflation, fiscal pressures, and weakness in the diamond sector are central risks. The industry is liquidating slow-moving stock to boost cash but balancing that against long-term brand positioning. Econsult warned that Botswana must stabilize its budget by cutting public spending to avoid debt risks.
Laos maintained a positive Q3 2025 economic outlook, with GDP expected to grow 4.0%. Agriculture, industry, and services are forecast to expand 3.7%, 3.6%, and 4.3%, respectively, amid strong tourism and infrastructure investment.
Nepal received USD 172 mln in pledged FDI during July, the first month of its FY2025/26. This compares to USD 4.3 mln a year earlier. The 127 new projects aim to create over 8,000 jobs, with ICT and agriculture drawing the most interest.
Kazakhstan’s GDP grew 6.2% YoY in 1H25, with a record 9.3% growth in the short-term activity indicator in July, surpassing the previous peak level seen in 2010. Momentum remains strong, suggesting even higher growth ahead
Botswana’s inflation slowed to 1.1% YoY in July from 2.0% in June, with prices falling 0.7% m/m. Urban inflation was 0.8% YoY, down from 1.7%.
Cameroon’s oil output dropped 13.6% YoY to 4.91 mln barrels in Q1, while gas production fell 9%. Exports declined 28% to USD 378 mln, according to the National Hydrocarbons Corp.
Lebanon’s local currency debt rating was upgraded by S&P to CCC from CC after a February 2025 government formation revived IMF-related reforms. The foreign currency rating remains SD with a stable outlook.
Tunisia’s economy grew 3.2% YoY in Q2 2025, supported by agriculture (+9.8%) and manufacturing (+3.9%). However, exports fell 9.6% while imports rose 8.9%, according to the national statistics agency.
Bolivia held elections amid its worst economic crisis in a generation. Annual inflation is nearing 25% and the country faces severe fuel and FX shortages. The right-wing opposition is expected to gain power for the first time in 20 years.
Colombia’s GDP grew 2.1% YoY in Q2, missing most forecasts. The result bolsters government pressure on the central bank to ease further. GDP grew just 0.5% from Q1, with mining and construction remaining weak.
Malaysia’s GDP grew 4.4% YoY in Q2, missing forecasts. The central bank expects weaker external demand ahead and has cut its 2025 growth forecast to 4-4.8%, from 4.5-5.5%, amid risks from global tariffs.
Mauritius’ central bank left its key rate at 4.5%, citing a prudent stance amid medium-term risks from tariff-driven global inflation. It pledged to act between scheduled meetings if necessary.
Namibia’s central bank supports adopting the South African Reserve Bank’s lower inflation target, estimating it could cut headline inflation by 1.5 ppts by 2028 with minimal growth drag. Governor Johannes Gawaxab noted that success will require controlling administered price inflation.
South Africa’s government is negotiating with lenders to fund a credit-guarantee vehicle for private-sector infrastructure investment, contributing ZAR 2 bln in equity toward a ZAR 10 bln requirement. It is also seeking investors for 1,164 km of transmission lines, part of a 14,218 km, ZAR 500 billion grid expansion to connect renewable projects.
Zambia’s central bank kept its policy rate at 14.5% to consolidate progress on lowering inflation. The BoZ is expected to hold steady until starting a rate-cutting cycle in 1H 2026.
Costa Rica’s 2025 GDP is projected at 3.5%, down from the 5% average since 2021 but still outperforming the region. The IMF praised strong fundamentals, falling public debt (below 60% of GDP), and fiscal consolidation, with inflation seen converging to the 3% target by 2026.
Peru’s central bank held its rate at 4.5% for a third month, citing near-target inflation at 1.7% and rising global trade restrictions. It is monitoring the impact of election uncertainty and US tariffs.
Serbia’s central bank cut its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 2.75% from 3.5%, citing weaker agricultural output, rising inflation, and lower investor confidence. For 2026 to 2027, it projects growth of 4 to 5%. President Vucic reiterated Serbia’s military neutrality and non-alignment with NATO, and announced early elections. He also confirmed there would be no constitutional changes to allow him another presidential term.
Egypt signed a USD 1 bln agreement with China’s Sailun Group to build an automotive tire factory in the Suez Canal Economic Zone, producing 10 mln tires annually by 2029, with the first phase due in 2026. The SCEZ benefits from special legal and tax incentives and is part of China’s broader expansion in Egyptian infrastructure and industrial sectors.
Standard Chartered Bank said Egypt’s macroeconomic stability remains intact, supported by strong FX inflows from portfolio investments and official sources. The bank expects over half of USD 12.5 bln in pledged investments from Qatar and Kuwait to be disbursed this year, but also stressed the need for tighter fiscal policy and faster privatization to sustain growth.