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Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a US-brokered peace deal in Washington on Friday, ending decades of conflict over Karabakh. The agreement includes a planned corridor in the Caucasus opposed by Iran, citing border security concerns. Russia, Georgia’s opposition, and Georgian PM Kobakhidze welcomed the deal as a step toward stability and economic growth. Azerbaijan regained full control of Karabakh in Sept 2023 after a military campaign.
North Macedonia recorded an annual inflation rate of 4.8% in July 2025, up from 4.5% in June, driven mainly by rising prices in food, beverages, recreation, and transport.
Lesotho secured a cut in US tariffs on its exports from 50% to 15% (effective 7 Aug), easing pressure on its textile sector. The government had sought 10% but will continue talks, citing lobbying efforts in Washington and negotiations with the US Embassy.
Argentina’s Buenos Aires City inflation rose 2.5% MoM in July, up 0.4 pp from June, lifting the annual rate to 40.9% YoY. Seasonal prices surged 9% m/m, while core inflation eased to 1.9% MoM, suggesting limited FX pass-through from July’s 7% official rate depreciation.
US President Trump signaled possible extra tariffs on Chinese imports after imposing an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods for continuing Russian oil purchases. India called the move unjustified, noting the US and EU also import from Russia.
Philippines’ GDP grew 5.5% YoY in Q2 2025, slightly above forecasts, with 1.5% QoQ growth versus the 1.3% median estimate.
Ukraine’s annual inflation in July was 14.1%, below economist forecasts of 14.6% and down from a rate of 14.3% in June. This was the second decline in a row, following a two-year high of 15.9% in May.
China had its A+ sovereign rating affirmed by S&P, which cited strong fiscal stimulus and expected a return to 4%+ growth; the agency warned that excessive stimulus or delays in fiscal consolidation could trigger a downgrade.
India held its policy rate steady as expected, saying economic momentum remains solid, but warned of risks from upcoming 25% US tariffs and inflation pressures tied to food prices and energy imports from Russia.
Laos requested discounted fuel supplies and deeper trade and investment ties from the UAE to ease domestic shortages and offset a USD 557 mln diesel import bill in H1 2025.
Pakistan met only 2 of 5 key IMF fiscal conditions ahead of its second review, missing revenue and provincial surplus targets but achieving the crucial primary budget surplus; a USD 1 bln disbursement remains likely.
Albania’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting, citing steady economic growth, low inflation, and strong financial stability. Governor Gent Sejko emphasized that current monetary policy supports growth and medium-term price stability, with inflation expected to return to target by early 2026.
The National Bank of Moldova has cut its base rate by 25bp to 6.25%, citing improved domestic indicators and forecasts for continued inflation reduction, despite external risks and supply shocks.
Serbia’s central bank kept its key interest rate unchanged at 5.75%, prioritizing inflation control as annual inflation rose to 4.6% in June, above its upper target limit. Despite weaker economic growth due to political unrest and reduced investment, the bank expects activity to pick up later this year.
Costa Rica registered annual deflation of 0.61% in July 2025, the sharpest drop since Oct. 2024, driven by falling prices in transport, telecoms, and clothing; however, monthly inflation rebounded to 0.52%.
Mexico cut its key interest rate by 25 bps to 7.75%, citing improved disinflation and stronger Q2 growth, but emphasized a cautious outlook due to global uncertainty and peso risks.
Ghana’s July inflation declined to 12.1% YoY from 13.7% in June, below expectations and strengthening the case for further rate cuts; the CPI series may be rebased in 2026, using 2025 as the base year due to price stability.
Zambia’s 2053 Eurobonds dropped over 3% after the IMF’s fifth programme review downgraded the country’s debt carrying capacity from 2.62 to 2.58, citing weaker import coverage and rising concerns over debt handling.
DR Congo remained impacted by the ongoing cobalt export ban, with Glencore warning that a large share of its output may remain unsold by year-end; the suspension, now extended to September, aims to support prices and cut oversupply.
The Dominican Republic July inflation rose 0.4% MoM and 3.4% YoY, driven by rising food and housing prices; with core inflation steady at 0.3% m/m and the headline figure below target, the BCRD is likely to maintain its 5.75% rate.
China posted a trade surplus of USD 98.2 bln in July 2025, lower than expected but higher YoY, as exports rose 7.2% and imports grew 4.1% amid temporary easing of tariff pressures and optimism around a renewed US-China trade truce.
Indonesia recorded 5.1% YoY GDP growth in Q2, the fastest pace in two years, driven by exports and investment, although headwinds remain from weak credit and upcoming US tariffs set to begin on August 7.
Thailand accepted US trade conditions to combat origin fraud, pledging to raise the Regional Value Content threshold to ~50% and strengthen customs checks, in exchange for lower US tariffs on Thai imports (19%).
China reportedly restricted exports of key minerals used in Western defense tech, requiring proof of civilian end-use before shipping and delaying supplies of rare earths, pushing global prices higher.
India faced a new tariff threat from Donald Trump, who announced he would “substantially raise” duties on Indian exports in retaliation for India’s continued purchases and resale of Russian oil. The Indian rupee edged up to around 87.77 per USD, after the central bank kept its key policy rate unchanged, as expected, and maintained a “neutral” stance. This followed a surprise 50 bps rate cut in June. Governor Malhotra noted ongoing global trade challenges but said India’s economic outlook remains bright.
Pakistan recorded a USD 1.44 bln trade surplus with the US over the past four years, driven by exports of USD 2.32 bln versus USD 880 mln in imports; the FY 2024-25 surplus alone stood at USD 409 mln.
Thailand’s cabinet approved a draft trade agreement with the US after Washington imposed a 19% tariff on Thai goods; Thailand agreed to lower tariffs on US imports under the reciprocal deal.
Armenia’s central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.75% during its August meeting, following a continued decline in headline inflation. In annual terms, inflation in Armenia slowed again to 3.4% in July from 3.9% the previous month, which is the lowest reading since April.
Tajikistan’s GDP grew by 8.1% in the first half of 2025, driven by strong performance in industrial production, services, trade, and investment. Industrial production rose 24%, while the country also attracted USD 213 mln in external funding during this period.
Kenya’s FX reserves rose sharply to a record USD 10.1 bln after a USD 900 mln Eurobond buyback was undersubscribed, leaving the Treasury with surplus funds from a separate USD 1.5 bln issuance.
