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Tunisia’s annual inflation rate declined to 5.3% in July 2025, the lowest since May 2021, from 5.4% previously, mainly due to a slowdown in prices of food & non-alcoholic beverages. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.3% in July, after a 0.4% increase in the prior month.
Argentina’s President Milei vetoed three high-cost social bills passed by Congress, including expanded pensions and disability benefits worth 2.5% of GDP; lawmakers are planning a vote to override the veto.
Bolivia’s inflation slowed to 1.2% m/m in July from 5.2% in June, driven by falling food prices post-blockades, but YoY inflation hit 24.9%, a multi-decade high, amid ongoing price pressures.
Peru is on track for record exports in 2025, with H1 shipments reaching USD 40.1 bln; copper exports rose 12.3% YoY to USD 12.6 bln, and gold exports jumped 45.7% to USD 8.57 bln amid higher prices.
Colombia launched a cash tender to repurchase multiple global bonds in a move to optimize debt servicing and contain its rising fiscal deficit. Analysts viewed the buyback as curve-supportive but not enough to curb the overall debt trajectory.
Paraguay’s July inflation accelerated to 4.3% YoY from 4.0% in June, led by food (+6.3%), basket services (+3.8%), and fuel (+1.5%). Gains were partly offset by cheaper imported durables as the guaraní strengthened.
India’s rupee depreciated past 87.7 per USD, nearing record lows, after Trump imposed 25% tariffs and threatened more unless India stops re-exporting Russian energy. Inflation fell to 2.1%, increasing expectations of further RBI rate cuts.
Malaysia agreed to slash import duties on 98% of US goods, following a US tariff cut to 19% on Malaysian exports. Malaysia committed to USD 19 bln in Boeing purchases and USD 150 bln in US tech goods, with a joint statement to follow.
S&P Ratings has affirmed Bosnia and Herzegovina’s ‘B+/B’ sovereign credit ratings with a stable outlook, citing strong fiscal performance and a stable currency board arrangement, despite limited policy flexibility. While political tensions and secession threats from Republika Srpska persist, S&P does not expect these to escalate.
Tajikistan’s central bank has lowered its policy rate by 50 bps to 7.75%, citing reduced inflation and a stronger currency. The Eurasian Development Bank expects this decision will help keep inflation within the target range, and expects a gradual decline in inflation this year. Meanwhile, the share of monetary gold in Tajikistan’s international reserves has risen to 20%, which the central bank says exceeds acceptable levels, meaning it now plans for greater diversification and improved reserve management.
Kenya’s inflation rose to 4.1% in July from 3.8% in June, driven by higher transport and utility costs. Fuel prices spiked, with petrol up 5.1% MoM and kerosene up 6.7%, highlighting external price vulnerability.
Malawi’s President Chakwera selected 43-year-old reformist Trade Minister Mumba as his 2025 election running mate to appeal to youth amid 27% inflation and rising living costs. Polls show ex-President Mutharika leading with 43% vs Chakwera’s 26%.
Laos and Myanmar were hit with 40% US import tariffs under Trump’s revised trade policy, the second-highest globally after Syria, despite low trade volumes; concerns were raised over Laos’ Chinese debt ties.
Pakistan needed to arrange USD 10 bln in net financing for FY26, with USD 25.9 bln in total debt servicing needs; FX reserves were projected to reach USD 15.5 bln by end-2025 and USD 17.5 bln by June 2026.
Fitch Solutions maintained their 2025 growth forecast for Azerbaijan at 2.6%, as diversification into non-oil sectors such as mining and construction helps offset declining oil revenues and weak trade performance. While major infrastructure projects like the Zangezur corridor could boost regional connectivity and long-term trade, short-term growth will rely more on private consumption amid falling capital investment and volatile global oil prices.
Kazakhstan’s annual inflation was 11.8% in July, in line with the previous month. The next central bank meeting is set for August 29, and while consensus expectation is currently for the central bank to hold interest rates, there is a chance of the NBK hiking, in an effort to contain pass-through to inflation from the current currency weakness in Kazakhstan. Further, the current account deficit widened by USD 1.2 bln to reach USD 2.8 bln in 2Q25, mainly due to a seasonal increase in imports.
Egypt-based Breadfast raised USD 10 mln in Series B2 funding led by EBRD and Novastar Ventures, valuing the firm at nearly USD 400 mln, with plans to expand operations, boost private labels, and create jobs.
The World Bank stated that Kenya has yet to complete key prior actions required for a second DPO loan, including implementing regulations for the Conflict of Interest Act and the Social Protection Act. While preparations are ongoing, disbursement timing and loan size will depend on completing these steps and maintaining a sound macro framework. Credit agencies have warned that reform delays could hinder concessional financing access, potentially forcing Kenya to rely more on commercial or domestic borrowing—raising risks to debt servicing and fiscal consolidation.
Lesotho’s trade minister said US tariffs have hurt the textile industry, but the government will continue AGOA negotiations and push for lower tariffs during the SADC-USA Forum from Aug 3-18.
Zambia’s inflation fell to 15.3% YoY in July, the lowest since 2023, driven by easing food prices and a 21% appreciation of the Kwacha YTD. The slowdown in inflation and strong real yields have fueled expectations of a rate cut from the current 14.5% at the next MPC meeting. However, the World Bank warned that Zambia has yet to meet conditions for a second DPO loan, including regulations for the Conflict of Interest and Social Protection Acts. Delays in reform have raised risks to concessional funding access.
Colombia’s central bank held its policy rate at 9.25% in June, with a divided vote: 4 for a hold, 2 for a 50 bps cut, and 1 for 25 bps. Inflation eased to 4.8% from 5.1% in May, led by declines in food and electricity prices. Core inflation remained at 4.8%. May’s economic activity rose 2.7% YoY, driven by services, while Q2 GDP is estimated to have grown 2.7% (annualized), fueled by a 4.1% rise in domestic demand. External conditions remain tight, and the Board reiterated a data-dependent approach amid lingering global trade and geopolitical risks.
The Dominican Republic’s central bank held rates at 5.75% for a seventh month, with inflation easing to 3.56% and growth remaining firm, supported by a liquidity injection and robust credit expansion. The DOP 81 bln June liquidity program (DOP 40 bln disbursed) aims to boost private credit as transmission gains traction. Headline inflation eased to 3.56% in June and core to 4.15%, both within the 4% ±1% target. YTD activity grew 2.4%, led by agriculture, mining, manufacturing, and services, with private credit up 8% in July. Inflation is projected to stay on target through 2026.
Bangladesh’s central bank unveiled its H1 FY2025/26 monetary policy, targeting 5.5% GDP growth and 6.5% inflation, while stabilizing the exchange rate and curbing non-performing loans amid financial sector stress.
India reportedly considered increasing US imports of natural gas, gold, and telecom equipment to ease tensions following President Trump’s 25% tariff threat, opting against immediate retaliation.
Ukraine’s parliament passed a bill to restore the independence of key anti-corruption agencies, reversing a controversial law that had placed them under control of the General Prosecutor’s Office, prompting widespread protests and international criticism. President Zelensky quickly signed the bill, emphasizing Ukraine’s democratic values and responding to both domestic and foreign pressure. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s current account deficit narrowed to USD 3.12 bln in June, from a revised USD 3.45 bln in May, according to the central bank.
Georgia’s GDP grew by 8.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with growth slowing to 7.1% in Q2 from 9.8% in Q1. Despite the deceleration, forecasters including the National Bank of Georgia, and the IMF, have raised their 2025 growth forecasts recently to around 7.3-7.5%.
Fitch Ratings has warned that delays from the North Macedonian government in fully implementing the budget law, highlights ongoing fiscal uncertainty, despite maintaining the 2025 budget deficit target at 4% of GDP. While the government aims for gradual fiscal consolidation, rising spending pressures and potential new sovereign loan commitments pose risks to debt stabilization.
Serbia’s economy grew by 2.0% YoY in Q2 2025, maintaining the same pace as in Q1. The slowdown from 2024’s 3.9% growth rate is attributed to global trade tensions and domestic political unrest, though forecasters expect growth to rebound in the coming years.
In Uzbekistan, annual inflation rose slightly to 8.9% in July, from 8.7% in June. Last month the central bank held interest rates at 14.0%, keeping a cautious monetary approach, aiming to curb inflationary pressures.
Ghana, Tanzania, and Uganda were identified by BMI as the most vulnerable in Africa to FX reserve shocks from a gold price drop, with gold making up 45%, 42%, and 35% of their exports respectively.
