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Fitch Ratings has warned that delays from the North Macedonian government in fully implementing the budget law, highlights ongoing fiscal uncertainty, despite maintaining the 2025 budget deficit target at 4% of GDP. While the government aims for gradual fiscal consolidation, rising spending pressures and potential new sovereign loan commitments pose risks to debt stabilization.
Serbia’s economy grew by 2.0% YoY in Q2 2025, maintaining the same pace as in Q1. The slowdown from 2024’s 3.9% growth rate is attributed to global trade tensions and domestic political unrest, though forecasters expect growth to rebound in the coming years.
In Uzbekistan, annual inflation rose slightly to 8.9% in July, from 8.7% in June. Last month the central bank held interest rates at 14.0%, keeping a cautious monetary approach, aiming to curb inflationary pressures.
Ghana, Tanzania, and Uganda were identified by BMI as the most vulnerable in Africa to FX reserve shocks from a gold price drop, with gold making up 45%, 42%, and 35% of their exports respectively.
Kenya’s inflation rose to 4.1% in July from 3.8% in June, driven by higher food costs; the central bank expects inflation to stay below its 5% midpoint target through March 2026.
India extended trade talks in Washington by one day ahead of a July 9 tariff deadline. A deal is reportedly close but key disputes remain, including US demands to open Indian markets to genetically modified crops, which New Delhi opposes.
Russia resumed LNG activity at its Arctic LNG 2 facility, docking a tanker for the first time since US sanctions stalled the project in October. Moscow has assembled a “shadow fleet” of 13 ships to service Arctic exports, targeting Asian buyers amid scrutiny from US and EU officials.
Israel’s natural gas exports to Egypt returned to normal at 1 bln cubic feet per day following a truce with Iran. This marks a recovery from 260 mln cf/d earlier in the week after the Leviathan field reopened, easing supply shortages in Egypt.
Colombia’s central bank held its rate at 9.25%, citing fiscal deterioration and tight global conditions. Moody’s and S&P downgraded the country amid a projected 7.1% budget deficit in 2025, the widest since the pandemic, limiting monetary easing space.
Paraguay passed its fifth PCI and third RSF review with the IMF, unlocking USD 285 mln. Real GDP grew 4.2% in 2024 and is forecast at 3.8% in 2025. Inflation remains contained and the fiscal deficit is expected to fall to 1.9% of GDP in 2025
Bolivia was downgraded by S&P to CCC- from CCC+ amid rising concerns over debt repayment capacity and external liquidity risks. Political gridlock is hampering macroeconomic stabilization. Moody’s had already cut Bolivia to Ca in April, while Fitch lowered it to CCC- in January.
Mexico’s central bank cut its benchmark rate by 50 bps to 8%, citing economic headwinds and uncertainty over trade policies such as Trump’s proposed tariffs. The 2025 GDP growth forecast was reduced to 0.1%, while inflation remains above the 3% target.
China purchased a rare 30,000-ton shipment of soybean meal from Argentina at USD 360 per ton, including freight, to reduce reliance on US crops amid the trade war. The shipment will arrive in Guangdong in September and serves as a test for fourth-quarter supply decisions.
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio held a “warm and cordial” discussion, agreeing to deepen trade ties and cooperation on regional peace and stability, according to a statement from Sharif’s office.
According to Bloomberg analysts, Sri Lanka’s rupee is expected to depreciate ~4% over the next six months, driven by a narrowing inflation-adjusted interest-rate differential with the US and rising dollar outflows due to imports and external debt repayments. The currency could weaken to LKR 312/USD by December, from ~LKR 300 now.
Russian banking officials warned of a credible risk of a systemic banking crisis within 12 months, as bad debt mounts across corporate and retail clients, likely exceeding official estimates. The economic outlook is deteriorating, with slowing growth, rising inflation, and labor shortages adding pressure on Putin’s ability to sustain the war in Ukraine.
Israel estimated the cost of its 12-day war with Iran at ILS 10 bln (USD ~2.7 bln) for reconstruction, though total damages may reach USD 12 bln. Finance Minister Smotrich warned this could weigh on 2025 GDP growth, previously forecast at 3.5%.
Ghana’s parliament approved a USD 2.8 bln debt restructuring deal with 25 creditor nations, including China and France, aiming to reduce debt-to-GDP to 55% by 2026 and debt-service-to-revenue to below 18% from 2028. This milestone unlocks continued IMF bailout disbursements under the USD 3 bln program.
Nigerian President Tinubu signed four tax reform laws aimed at boosting government revenue to 18% of GDP by 2030. The changes reduce taxes for low-income groups and small firms, increase obligations for wealthy individuals and big companies, and introduce a 20% rent rebate. A three-month adjustment period is provided.
South African President Ramaphosa dismissed Deputy Trade Minister Andrew Whitfield (Democratic Alliance) without explanation, prompting backlash from the DA, which demanded equal accountability for ANC ministers implicated in corruption.
UK scrapped a mega-project to import solar and wind power from Morocco via undersea cables, citing strategic misalignment and high risks. Xlinks, the British company behind the initiative, expressed “bitter disappointment” over the UK’s rejection of its 25-year price-guarantee contract for the project.
Zambia’s inflation slowed to a 14-month low of 14.1% YoY in June, helped by a rallying kwacha and lower import costs. Copper output rose nearly 30% YoY in Q1, and corn production is forecast to more than double to 3.66 mln tons in 2025. The central bank may cut rates in August if the disinflation trend persists.
Argentina’s farmers are rushing soy and corn export registrations ahead of President Milei’s tariff relief expiry. Over 2.5 mln metric tons were licensed in a single day, as traders anticipate potential tariff extensions or adjustments next year.
Thailand’s central bank held its key interest rate at 1.75% and raised its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 2.3%, up from the earlier range of 1.3%–2%. Growth in 2026 is expected to slow slightly to 1.7%.
The IMF has completed its second review of the Policy Coordination Instrument for Tajikistan, as well as Article IV consultations. The fund said there is “broad implementation” of program reform targets, and all but one of the quantitative targets are met. It also continued to call for prudent fiscal measures and reforms.
The IMF has released its Article IV consultation report on Uzbekistan, where it forecasted robust growth of 5.9% and 5.8% over the next two years, with inflation expected to gradually decline too. The fund highlighted risks from trade and commodity price shocks, as well as contingent liabilities from SOEs and PPPs.
According to Bloomberg analysts, Argentina’s inflation crisis sharply reduced domestic market liquidity between 2013 and 2020, pushing companies to rely on US markets. ADR activity surged, with Banco Macro’s local ticker at times handling just 2% of total trades. In contrast, Chile’s ADR liquidity ratios remained near 1.
Jamaica completed its 2025 Article IV with the IMF, which praised its strong institutional progress, falling debt, and macro stability. Despite FY2024/25 GDP losses from hurricanes, inflation fell to the BOJ’s 4–6% target, unemployment hit a record low of 3.7%, and current account surpluses were recorded for two consecutive years.
Crude oil prices rose over 1% to above USD 65/barrel on Wednesday, rebounding from a 13% two-day plunge, its steepest drop since 2022. The market remained focused on Middle East tensions, where a US-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel appeared to hold. President Trump backed continued Chinese imports of Iranian oil, easing sanctions pressure. Still, a US intel report warned that recent strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites may have delayed its program by only a few months. Separately, EIA data showed US crude stocks fell 5.8 mln barrels last week, well above forecasts, marking a fifth straight weekly decline.
Bangladesh’s LPG imports were delayed due to the Israel-Iran war, with vessels stuck at ports in Iraq, UAE, Qatar, and Oman, according to the LPG Operators Association. A prolonged conflict was expected to severely disrupt the country’s energy supply.
