Kenya launched a reopening of its 20- and 25-year bonds, aiming to raise KES 50 bln between June 24 and July 9. The next fiscal year’s first bond auction is scheduled for July 9.
June 25, 2025
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Kenya launched a reopening of its 20- and 25-year bonds, aiming to raise KES 50 bln between June 24 and July 9. The next fiscal year’s first bond auction is scheduled for July 9.
Morocco held its key rate at 2.25%, citing global uncertainty tied to the Israel-Iran conflict and US policy changes. Despite caution, the central bank noted robust prospects with USD 35 bln in investments planned, including rail and airline expansions.
Nigeria’s public debt was projected to exceed 60% of GDP by 2030, driven by high domestic borrowing and foreign exposure. Fiscal reforms were expected to boost revenues from a low base, but debt service costs remained elevated. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s Senate extended the 2024 budget implementation to December 2025, allowing ministries to fully use capital allocations, according to official parliamentary proceedings.
South Africa said limited fiscal space constrained stimulus, with measures like frozen tax brackets and spending cuts dragging on growth. Authorities argued monetary easing could help if oil-driven inflation pressures proved temporary.
Brazil’s central bank signaled a pause in its rate hikes, keeping Selic at 15%. Officials said rate cuts may begin in December, but warned that higher 2026 spending could delay disinflation and prolong tight policy.
Paraguay’s central bank held its policy rate at 6% for the 15th straight month, citing stable inflation, which slowed to 3.6% in May. Analysts expected no changes this year as the bank reaffirmed its price stability commitment.
India and the US accelerated talks to finalize a trade deal before July 9, when higher US tariffs are set to apply. Key disagreements remained in agriculture, and officials aimed to avoid a 26% hike in duties on Indian goods if no agreement is reached.
Laos reported that the China-Laos Railway spurred nationwide infrastructure development, improved mobility, and opened up new opportunities for youth and trade. Locals noted improved travel, while the project was credited with fueling economic growth and skill development.
Thailand’s baht weakened amid US-Iran tensions and growing political pressure on the PM to resign. The Bank of Thailand was expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday, with attention on oil price effects on inflation and comments from the central bank.
Argentina’s economy grew 0.8% QoQ in Q1 2025, below the 1.5% consensus, though annual growth reached 5.8%. Consumer spending rose 2.9% QoQ. An IMF mission was in Buenos Aires to assess performance and possibly unlock USD 2 bln in funding.
Guatemala’s inflation eased to 1.7% in May, while core inflation stayed near 4%. The current account surplus narrowed to 2.9% of GDP in 2024, and public debt remained under 27%. Banguat held its policy rate at 4.5%, supporting an infrastructure-focused fiscal expansion. The IMF completed its article IV mission to the country and cited prudent economic management, while emphasizing on more inclusive growth and poverty reduction
Mexico issued USD 4.5 bln in global bonds to manage existing debt. Other issuers included Argentina’s Córdoba province, Brazil’s JBS SA, Kuwait, Barbados, and Antigua & Barbuda. Mexico’s debt was expected to rise to 54.3% of GDP in 2025 from 50.9% in 2024.
Peru’s central bank (BCRP) revised its 2025 growth forecast down to 3.1% from 3.2%, citing weak metallic mining. Primary GDP for 2026 was revised to 2.1%, down from 2.6%, with mining expectations slashed from 2% to 0.3%.
Indonesia’s interest payments were projected to peak at 2.5% of GDP in 2026–2028, up from a prior estimate of 2.4% in 2025. Analysts stated that pre-COVID levels (1.7%) may not return until after 2050 unless the fiscal deficit shrinks or interest rates decline. A 100 bps market rate hike could push the interest burden to 3.5% by 2050.
Thailand and Cambodia escalated tensions by closing multiple border crossings. The dispute stemmed from a leaked phone call between Thailand’s PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Cambodia’s former leader Hun Sen. Cambodia suspended fuel imports and sought ICJ intervention in land disputes.
Vietnam’s Communist Party chief To Lam prepared to visit the US to finalize a trade deal with President Trump. Lam aimed to reduce Vietnam’s trade surplus by negotiating tariff ranges between 20–25% while the US pushed for enforcement against transshipment of Chinese goods.
Analysts now expect Ukraine’s economy to expand 3.1% this year, down from previous estimates of 3.6%. Expectations for growth next year have been revised down to 4.8%, while annual inflation this year is forecasted to be 12.4%.
Armenia’s central bank cut its 2025 economic growth forecast to 4.6-5.1%, down from a previous estimate of 4.5-7.0%, as it cites weaker export and import projections, and shifting inflation pressures. Exports and imports are both forecasted to drop about a third this year.
Burkina Faso received a USD 32.8 mln disbursement after the IMF completed the third ECF review. While 2024 fiscal criteria were missed by 0.6% of GDP, the IMF granted waivers due to corrective 2025 budget measures. Seven of eight structural benchmarks were met, and agriculture boosted GDP amid ongoing insecurity.
Israel resumed gas exports to Egypt via the Tamar field after a six-day halt triggered by conflict with Iran. The Leviathan field remained closed. Before the halt, Israel exported up to 1 bcf/day; current flows to Jordan stood at 100 mmcf/day.
Ghana’s PPI inflation dropped to 10.2% YoY in May from 18.5% in April, its lowest since Nov 2023. Ex-factory prices fell 4.2% MoM. Mining and manufacturing drove the disinflation, together accounting for 79% of the drop. Authorities said stable prices could spur investment and pricing reforms.
Ivory Coast projected a fivefold increase in oil output to 500,000 bpd by 2035, driven by offshore field expansions and USD 16 bln in energy investments by 2030. Yaatra Ventures agreed to build a second refinery with state-owned SIR, valued at USD 5.3 bln.
Rwanda’s GDP grew 7.8% YoY in Q1 2025, slightly below Q4’s 8% growth, marking the slowest pace since Q3 2023. The industry and services sectors expanded 9%, while agriculture grew 2%, according to official statistics.
Costa Rica’s central bank (BCCR) kept its policy rate at 4.0%, unchanged since October 2024. The board was divided on the decision, citing trade tensions, global uncertainty, and currency overvaluation harming tourism and exports. Inflation was forecast to return to target by Q3 2026.
The Dominican Republic’s remittance inflows rose 11.1% YoY to USD 986 mln in May. Cumulative Jan–May inflows reached USD 4.9 bln, up 11.9% YoY. BCRD attributed this to US labor market strength, projecting a narrower current account deficit and peso appreciation.
Iran signaled openness to de-escalation with Israel and resuming nuclear talks with the US, while warning of a proportional response to Israeli attacks. The fourth day of strikes has heightened fears of regional war and threats to energy trade routes.
Ghana’s long-term foreign currency rating was upgraded by Fitch to B- from RD, citing normalized talks with most external creditors after restructuring USD 13.1 bln in Eurobonds. Only USD 700 mln remains under negotiation, with low holdout risk.
Nigeria’s inflation slowed for a second month to 23% YoY in May, down from 23.7%, supported by stable currency and energy costs. Core inflation dropped to 22.3%, while food inflation eased slightly to 21.1%, aiding policy clarity after January’s data revamp.
Costa Rica aims to conclude tariff relief talks with the US within weeks, targeting zero tariffs after new 10% baseline levies were imposed by Washington. The trade minister said the deal could shape broader US–Latin America engagement.
Thailand is expected to cut rates by 25 bps to 1.5% on June 25, as growth risks mount and tourist arrivals slump. Weak household spending and fading export strength have added to pressure, with analysts seeing limited impact from recent government support.