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India’s GDP expanded 7.8% YoY in Q2 2025, accelerating from 7.4% in the prior quarter and surpassing expectations of 6.6%. Growth reached its fastest pace in five quarters, supported by stronger consumer spending as easing inflation improved household purchasing power.
Philippines’ central bank cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 5.0%, its third straight reduction, after July inflation eased to a near six-year low of 0.9%. Q2 GDP growth accelerated to 5.5% YoY, the strongest in a year. The BSP maintained inflation forecasts of 1.7% in 2025, 3.3% in 2026, and 3.4% in 2027, but cautioned that energy and food prices could add risks.
Kazakhstan’s central bank held its policy rate at 16.5%, citing still-elevated inflation driven by fiscal support and consumer lending, while warning further tightening may be needed if disinflation stalls. It also raised its 2024 GDP growth forecast to 5.5–6.5% and expects the economy to converge to potential by 2027.
The National Bank of Kazakhstan will raise minimum reserve requirements starting September, a move expected to absorb up to KZT 3.5 tln (USD 6.5 bln) in excess liquidity while curbing inflation and cooling rapid consumer lending growth. Chairman Suleimenov also noted banks have begun repaying past state support, with further repayments expected soon.
Egypt’s central bank cut its key policy rates by 200 bps, lowering the overnight deposit rate to 22% and lending rate to 23%. The MPC cited stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP growth of 5.4% and easing inflation at 13.9% in July, with projections for continued disinflation. Growth was supported by non-petroleum manufacturing and tourism.
Nigeria’s corporates increasingly issued short-term debt to avoid high long-term financing costs. From June 2024 to June 2025, companies raised NGN 1.8 tln(USD 1.2 bln) in maturities under one year, compared with NGN 197.3 bln in 2-7 year tenors, according to FMDQ data.
Zambia’s inflation fell to 12.6% in August from 13% in July, its lowest in almost two years, as the kwacha strengthened 19% YTD on higher copper prices. Food inflation eased to 14.9% and non-food to 9.3%. The gap between the 14.5% policy rate and inflation widened to a six-year high, and policymakers signaled a possible rate cut in November.
The Dominican Republic’s central bank kept its key rate unchanged at 5.75% on Aug. 29, along with the overnight deposit rate at 4.50% and the 1-day repo at 6.25%. The Board noted headline inflation at 3.4% in July and core at 4.2%, both within the 4% ±1 band, and highlighted resilient fundamentals and stronger country risk metrics compared with peers.
Thailand’s bond rally is expected to lose momentum as most rate cuts are already priced in, according to Aberdeen. The 10-year yield has dropped to 1.30%, with limited room to fall another 10–15 bps over the next six months. Global funds have turned net sellers this quarter, offloading USD 262 mln after investing nearly USD 1.5 bln in Thai debt in 1H25.
Egypt cut rates by 200 bps, lowering the benchmark deposit rate to 22% and lending rate to 23%, its first reduction since May. The central bank said easing was warranted to support investment and debt servicing while anchoring inflation expectations. Consumer inflation slowed to 13.9% in July, less than half the September 2023 peak, while a stronger pound has helped contain price pressures.
Zambia’s inflation eased to 12.6% in August from 13% in July, the lowest in almost two years, helped by currency strength reducing import costs. Food inflation fell to 14.9% from 15.3% and non-food inflation to 9.3% from 9.7%. The central bank, which held rates steady at 14.5% in August, signaled cuts may be considered in November if disinflation persists.
Peru’s bond issuance between January and August 2025 reached PEN 52.8 bln (USD 14.5 bln), equal to 4.6% of GDP, according to the finance ministry. Public issuers accounted for USD 9.8 bln and private issuers USD 4.7 bln. Sovereign spreads averaged 156 bps, among the lowest in Latin America, supported by debt at 32.1% of GDP and a fiscal deficit of 3.5%. Authorities target a further deficit cut to 2.2% by year-end.
Sri Lanka’s central bank repaid USD 900 mln to the RBI and USD 209 mln to the IMF in the year to March 2025, official data showed. The central bank had borrowed about USD 2.2 bln from the RBI via the Asian Clearing Union and a USD 400 mln swap during the 2019-2020 crisis. Of USD 2.45 bln due to the RBI in Q4 2023, USD 1.33 bln remained outstanding by Q1 2025.
India’s rupee stabilized near 87.61 per USD on Thursday after five consecutive sessions of losses, supported by suspected RBI dollar sales and a softer greenback. The move helped prevent a retest of the 87.95 record low. Traders cited Fed rate cut bets after comments by New York Fed President Williams, and political pressure from President Trump’s attempt to replace Fed Governor Cook with a dovish nominee. Domestic demand kept India’s economy steady in July, though authorities warned that rising global protectionism could weigh on activity.
Pakistan’s central bank purchased USD 7.76 bln from the FX market between June 2024 and May 2025 to stabilize reserves and the exchange rate. Interventions peaked above USD 1 bln in some months, including USD 522 mln in May 2025. Reserves rose from USD 9.4 bln in June 2024 to USD 11.5 bln by May 2025, supported by multilateral inflows, maintaining buffers above USD 10 bln despite external repayments.
Ghana’s central bank scaled back its dollar sales after IMF concerns over excessive FX intervention. The bank had injected more than USD 2 bln into the market in Q2 2025 to stabilize the cedi, which has appreciated 40% YTD. The widening gap between official and retail markets persists, with the dollar at ca. GHS 11 officially but as high as GHS 12 in retail trades.
Argentina’s government is defending the peso ahead of a debt auction to refinance ARS 9 tln in maturities. Authorities are selling peso notes and dollar-linked securities while raising reserve requirements to ensure demand. The strategy has strengthened the peso but lifted yields sharply, slowed bank lending, and increased stress in the financial system, adding political risks for President Milei ahead of the October election.
Guatemala’s monetary authority cut its benchmark rate by 25 bps to 4.25%, citing inflation below the 3%-5% target band and subdued forecasts. Officials revised 2025 GDP growth up to 4% (from 3.8%) and held 2026 at 3.9%, noting that easing oil prices and anchored expectations justified a gradual loosening bias.
Sri Lanka recorded USD 9.99 bln in total export earnings between January and July 2025, up 7.8% YoY, according to central bank and customs data. Merchandise exports contributed USD 7.8 bln, rising 7.2% from a year earlier. Authorities attributed the strong performance to diversification efforts, supportive policies, and competitiveness gains across key sectors.
Armenia’s consumer inflation reached 3.4% yoy in July, down from 3.9% the previous month. The central bank noted that inflationary pressures remain driven by supply-side factors.
The National Bank of Kyrgyzstan kept its policy rate unchanged at 9.25%, citing geopolitical uncertainty, inflationary pressures in trading partners, and elevated domestic inflation (9.4% yoy) driven by tariff indexation and seasonal food effects.
Egypt’s policy outlook drew mixed views as Fitch Solutions forecast the central bank’s key rate falling to 21% by end-2025, then to 11.25% in 2026 before stabilizing at 8.25% from 2028 to 2034, near pre-crisis levels. A Reuters poll, however, pointed to a 100 bps cut to 23% on Aug. 28, following two earlier cuts this year totaling 325 bps. Annual inflation slowed to 13.9% in July from 14.9% in June, easing pressure after years of tightening.
Ghana’s economy grew 5.7% in 2024 and 5.3% YoY in Q1 2025, according to the World Bank’s 9th Economic Update. The report cited progress on debt restructuring, lower inflation, and reserve accumulation, but warned that fiscal imbalances undermined earlier stabilization efforts. GDP growth is expected to moderate to 3.9% in 2025 due to tighter domestic demand, persistent inflation, and high interest rates, before returning toward 5% in the medium term.
Kenya received a sovereign rating upgrade as S&P lifted its long-term credit rating to B from B-, citing reduced near-term external liquidity risks, strong exports, and robust remittances. The government projects 2025 growth at 5.6%, above finance ministry (5.3%) and central bank (5.2%) forecasts, and an improvement from 4.7% in 2024.
DR Congo’s central bank, under Governor Andre Wameso, forecast inflation will decline to ca. 8% by year-end from 24% in 2023, nearing the 7% target. Wameso said the current real interest rate of 17% is excessively high and constrains franc-denominated financing. The bank may cut rates in October for the first time since raising the policy rate to 25% in 2023. Plans under review include allowing individuals to invest in government securities and issuing long-term local-currency debt to establish a yield curve.
Ghana’s economy grew 5.7% in 2024 and 5.3% YoY in Q1 2025, according to the World Bank’s 9th Economic Update. The report cited progress on debt restructuring, lower inflation, and reserve accumulation, but warned that fiscal imbalances undermined earlier stabilization efforts. GDP growth is expected to moderate to 3.9% in 2025 due to tighter domestic demand, persistent inflation, and high interest rates, before returning toward 5% in the medium term.
Kenya received a sovereign rating upgrade as S&P lifted its long-term credit rating to B from B-, citing reduced near-term external liquidity risks, strong exports, and robust remittances. The government projects 2025 growth at 5.6%, above finance ministry (5.3%) and central bank (5.2%) forecasts, and an improvement from 4.7% in 2024.
Argentina faced renewed market stress after bribery allegations against a Milei ally pressured dollar bonds. Economy Minister Luis Caputo attributed spreads to heightened political risk ahead of midterm elections, saying rates should normalize. Analysts warned the scandal adds uncertainty, while new spending bills passed by Congress and liquidity provisions imposed to stabilize the peso further weighed on confidence.
Egypt’s policy outlook drew mixed views as Fitch Solutions forecast the central bank’s key rate falling to 21% by end-2025, then to 11.25% in 2026 before stabilizing at 8.25% from 2028 to 2034, near pre-crisis levels. A Reuters poll, however, pointed to a 100 bps cut to 23% on Aug. 28, following two earlier cuts this year totaling 325 bps. Annual inflation slowed to 13.9% in July from 14.9% in June, easing pressure after years of tightening.
Namibia’s Bank Windhoek issued the country’s first sustainability-linked bond, raising NAD 250.5 mln in a three-year deal oversubscribed 1.75 times. The bond is tied to sustainability performance targets rather than earmarked project financing, and was priced at Jibar plus 80 bps. Proceeds can be used for general corporate purposes, marking a shift from the traditional green bond model.
