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Nigeria posted a USD 6.83 bln balance of payments surplus in 2024, reversing a $3.34 billion deficit in the previous year. The surplus was driven by a USD 17.2 bln capital and financial account surplus, supported by increased gas and non-oil exports and reduced imports. The central bank credited reforms such as boosting oil and gas production, removing fuel subsidies, and the naira’s free-floating system.
Tunisia’s central bank forecasts inflation will decline from 7% in 2024 to 5.3% in 2025-2026. Lower consumer prices for olive oil, a staple in Tunisia, are expected to help mitigate the effects of higher wages, lower agricultural and public sector production, and global commodity price fluctuations. The country’s current account deficit surged in early 2024, worsened by a 47.5% drop in olive oil prices, which is heavily exported.
Colombia’s inflation slowed to 5.09% in March, marking the first slowdown in four months. However, inflation remains far from the target of 3%. The central bank’s decision to maintain the benchmark rate at 9.5% was criticized by President Gustavo Petro, who called it “economic sabotage,” while the board cited potential inflationary pressures as a reason for caution.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its key repo rate by 25 bps to 6% at its April meeting, marking consecutive rate cuts. The decision, aligned with market expectations, brought borrowing costs to their lowest level since November 2022. The RBI also slightly lowered its FY2025/26 GDP growth forecast to 6.5% from 6.7%, and revised its inflation estimate to 4% from 4.2%, within the target range of 2–6%.
The Vietnamese dong weakened to an all-time low, with USD/VND rising 0.9% to 26,016, as trade tensions between the US and China escalated. The central bank weakened the daily reference rate, and the stock market dropped 6.4%. With Vietnam’s heavy reliance on both China and the US, the dong is expected to remain under pressure unless a trade truce is reached between the two countries.
Kazakhstan’s central bank said it is willing to intervene in the currency market to support the tenge, if needed. Over the past month the currency has depreciated 4.2% against the US dollar. Further, the Development Bank of Kazakhstan has placed USD 500 mln of five-year Eurobonds, which attracted investor demand of more than 1.8 times the offered amount.
Vietnam’s leader To Lam has requested a 45-day delay on the steep 46% tariff that the US plans to impose, in a bid to avoid damaging the Vietnamese economy and increasing prices for American consumers. This tariff move contrasts with the recent strengthening of US-Vietnam relations, where Vietnam has become a key manufacturing base for US brands and a counterweight to China in the region.
Ghana’s central bank will auction USD 120 mln to Bulk Oil Distribution Companies (BDCs) in Q2 2025, the same amount as in Q1. This will be done through monthly auctions of $40 million from April to June, with two separate USD 20 mln auctions scheduled for each of April and May, and one in June on the 12th and 26th.
Nigeria’s central bank sold USD 197.71 mln to authorized dealers on April 4 to ensure “adequate liquidity” and stabilize the naira. The naira weakened by 2.7% to 1,605 naira per dollar, its largest drop in over four months, following President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements on April 2. Despite this, the central bank remains confident in the resilience of Nigeria’s foreign exchange framework.
Brazil’s central bank, having raised the benchmark interest rate to 14.25%, may halt further rate hikes sooner than expected due to rising recession risks. If a recession materializes, 18-month inflation expectations may fall to around 3.5%, down from the current level of 3.7%. The central bank’s decision on whether to raise rates further will be influenced by evolving economic conditions, with uncertainty remaining high ahead of the May 7 monetary policy meeting.
Moody’s downgraded the outlook for Botswana from stable to negative, citing risks from a prolonged downturn in the diamond industry, a key economic driver. The downturn is expected to impact government revenues and fiscal buffers, increasing national debt and weakening debt affordability. The government is anticipated to implement fiscal consolidation measures to address these challenges, though past diversification efforts have had mixed results.
Mozambique’s central bank has raised the required percentage of foreign earnings exporters must convert into local currency from 30% to 50%. This measure aims to alleviate the country’s foreign exchange shortage and will remain in effect for 18 months. The bank also mandated the full conversion of proceeds from the re-export of petroleum products into local currency.
Nigeria’s central bank stepped into the currency market, selling dollars to banks to alleviate pressure on the naira, which had been shaken by a selloff following US President Trump’s tariff announcement last week. On Friday, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) sold USD 197.71 mln to authorized dealers to ensure “adequate liquidity.” This move was part of the bank’s strategy to maintain a stable, transparent, and efficient foreign exchange system.
Azerbaijan’s central bank foreign exchange reserves rose 0.6% in the first quarter of 2025 to USD 11.0 bln, from USD 10.7 bln at the end of 2024. Forex reserves fell 5.6% over 2024 as the central bank sold more hard currency at auctions during the last quarter of the year.
Georgia’s annual inflation rose to 3.5% in March, the highest level in two years and up from 2.4% in February. The central bank target inflation rate is 3.0%, and interest rates have been held for some time, as inflation stayed below the target level.
Iraq’s FX reserves remain at historic levels, covering more than 100% of currency in circulation, despite a slight decrease. As of November 2024, reserves were approximately USD 04.8 bln. The drop was due to strengthening Iraqi banks with foreign currency for international trade, leading to a reduction in the parallel market exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar.
Ghana’s annual inflation rate decreased to 22.4% in March, from 23.1% in February, marking a five-month low. Food inflation slowed to 26.5% from 28.1%, driven by improved food supply. The central bank had previously raised the interest rate by 100 bps to 28%, signaling a response to inflationary pressures.
Mozambique’s central bank has raised the required revenue conversion for exporters to 50% from 30% to ease the dollar shortage. This move is expected to bring in around USD 750 mln in foreign exchange, addressing a USD 373 mln dollar backlog. The shortage had caused fuel and wheat supply issues, and the government is working with the central bank and commercial lenders to resolve fuel shortages.
US Special Envoy for Latin America, Mauricio Claver-Carone, stated that the US is committed to supporting Argentina at the IMF Board, but wants Argentina to end its currency swap agreement with China. The US sees this as a priority to limit China’s influence in Argentina, particularly amid rising global trade tariffs. Argentina’s central bank has a currency swap with China totaling USD 18 bln, with USD 5 bln already activated.
Armenia’s inflation rose to 3.3% in March, up from 2.5% the previous month. This is the highest reading in almost two years. The central bank held interest rates at 6.75% earlier this month, the first pause after a cutting cycle over 18 months.
China’s central bank, PBoC, set the yuan’s reference exchange rate at 7.1889 per USD, stronger than expected, in an effort to prevent rapid depreciation. Despite the yuan falling to a two-month low in offshore trading following President Trump’s announcement of additional tariffs on Chinese goods, the PBOC’s move suggests a desire to stabilize the currency. The support for the yuan is closely monitored, as a weaker yuan could help China offset US tariffs but may also harm investor confidence.
Indian government bonds saw a rally, with the 10-year bond yield sliding to a three-year low of 6.52% after the central bank announced USD 9.4 bln of sovereign debt purchases for April. The purchases will be conducted in four equal tranches of 200 bln rupees each. While banking system liquidity is expected to be stable in the coming months, fluctuations may occur depending on government spending.
Kazakhstan’s inflation rose 10.0% YoY in March, up from 9.4% the previous month and the highest figure recorded since 2023. The central bank will meet next week to set interest rates. Furter, the central bank has announced it will sell between USD 950 mln and 1,050 mln of FX in April, approximately USD 250 mln higher than in March.
Annual inflation in Uzbekistan rose to 10.3% in March, up from 10.1% in February. The central bank increased interest rates by 50bp to 14.0% at its March meeting.
Thailand’s manufacturing activity returned to contraction in March, as the S&P Thailand Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.9, below the neutral 50-mark that separates growth from contraction. Additionally, Thailand’s economic outlook is worsening due to the recent earthquake in Myanmar, which has caused an estimated immediate economic impact of around 20 bln baht. The Bank of Thailand may consider cutting interest rates at its April 30 meeting in response to the sluggish growth and may ask banks to offer more support to clients.
Ukraine’s current account widened to USD 2.53 bln in February, from a revised USD 2.35 bln in January, according to the central bank. Further, the IMF has said that Ukraine should be ready to raise interest rates further this year, depending on future inflation and expectations.
The Bank of Albania bought a record EUR 933 mln in currency interventions in 2024, to stabilize the Euro/Lek exchange rate, more than triple the amount it bought in 2023. Part of the intervention was planned to boost foreign exchange reserves, though most purchases were unplanned interventions to stop currency appreciation, according to the central bank.
Kenya’s annual inflation rate rose to a six-month high of 3.6% in March 2025, up from 3.5% in February. However, inflation remained below the central bank’s 5% target for the ninth consecutive month. On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 0.4% in February, slightly higher than the 0.3% rise in January.
Mozambique’s dollar bonds dropped for a fourth consecutive day after Moody’s downgraded the country’s local currency debt rating to Caa3 from Caa2, citing severe liquidity issues and high fiscal and external vulnerabilities. The downgrade follows concerns over Mozambique’s ability to manage its debt and external obligations. However, the country’s foreign currency debt servicing costs are manageable until the maturity of its Eurobond between 2028 and 2031.
According to JP Morgan, Brazil’s real continues to outperform the Mexican peso, driven by a higher interest rate in Brazil (14.25%) compared to Mexico, where the central bank is cutting borrowing costs. Brazil has become a popular destination for carry traders, while Mexico faces slowing economic activity and potential recession. Brazil’s monetary authority is expected to continue raising the Selic rate in May, while Mexico’s central bankers are signaling further interest rate cuts of 50 bps ahead.
