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Nigeria’s FX reserves climbed to USD 41 bln by Aug. 19, the highest since December 2021, according to central bank data. Reserves gained momentum in early August when levels first crossed USD 40 bln, advancing by an average of USD 81 mln per day since then. The build-up reflects stronger FX inflows relative to outflows, sustaining steady external accretion.
Rwanda’s central bank lifted the policy rate by 25 bps to 6.75% for the next three months, describing it as appropriate to keep inflation within the 2%-8% target. Governor Soraya Hakuziyaremye also confirmed that Rwanda added gold to its reserves in July, noting the investment was performing well with global gold prices between USD 106,000 and 108,000 per kilo.
Tunisia saw its largest protest in months as the powerful UGTT labor union mobilized against President Kais Saied’s mounting pressure on civil society. Demonstrators denounced increasing repression and curbs on freedoms since Saied’s 2021 power grab. Rights groups warned of democratic backsliding, while UGTT reaffirmed its position as a critical counterweight.
Paraguay’s central bank held its benchmark rate steady at 6%, citing expectations that inflation will remain within the 1.5%-5.5% target band. Inflation accelerated to 4.3% in July, driven by food, restaurant and tourism prices, but expectations remain anchored. The bank has kept rates unchanged since early 2024, aiming for 3.5% inflation over its 18-24 month horizon.
Philippines’ central bank is expected to lower its key rate by 25 bps to 5% on Aug. 28, moving closer to neutral amid softening growth prospects and benign inflation. Household consumption has remained resilient thanks to a strong labor market and subdued price pressures, but capital investment faces risks from US tariff shifts. Headline inflation remains under the 2%-4% target, with June projections at 1.6% for 2025 and 3.4% for 2026, leaving scope for further easing.
Ukraine’s central bank Governor Pyshnyi said an IMF team will visit in the coming weeks to discuss the 2026 budget, while also considering a possible new loan program. He emphasized that any new IMF plan should align with and support Ukraine’s European integration reforms.
Botswana’s central bank indicated scope to maintain accommodative policy, with Governor Cornelius Dekop noting inflation is projected at 3.5% in 2025 and 5.9% in 2026, compared with 2.7% and 4.6% at the June MPC meeting. Inflation is expected to temporarily exceed the target range in 2Q 2026 before moderating, while output is projected to remain below capacity in the medium term, limiting demand-driven price pressures.
Kenya’s Treasury announced plans to refinance over USD 5 bln in Eurobonds maturing by 2034, including urgent repurchase of USD 1 bln in 2028 notes. Treasury Secretary John Mbadi said authorities are also renegotiating near-term obligations with the Trade and Development Bank. Market reaction was positive, with yields on 2028 bonds down 25 bps and those on 2034 bonds down 12 bps by mid-afternoon in London.
Rwanda’s central bank raised the policy rate by 25 bps to 6.75%, aiming to anchor inflation within the 2%-8% target. The monetary policy committee stated it will monitor risks closely and stands ready to adjust if stability is threatened.
Argentina’s President Milei reiterated the administration’s commitment to draining liquidity ahead of elections, with policy aimed at keeping real rates elevated. Short-term repo operations averaged 52%, while ARS Lecaps maturing before October traded above 60% YTM, equivalent to monthly yields above 4%. With inflation projected at 1.7%-1.8% per month, real monthly rates stood near 2.4%, implying ca. 33% annualized. Market volatility in short-term rates persisted, though the overall bias remained upward.
Dominican Republic’s government submitted a budget amendment widening the 2025 deficit target to 3.5% of GDP, up 0.5ppt, primarily through a 20% increase in capital spending (0.4% of GDP). Authorities said additional financing needs would be covered by accumulated deposits. The economy grew 2.4% YoY in H1 2025, slowing sharply from 5% in 2024. The central bank launched a liquidity facility worth 1% of GDP in June to support credit.
Bank Indonesia cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 5.0% at its August 2025 meeting, surprising markets and marking the fifth cut since September 2024. Inflation remains within the 2.5% ± 1% target, while GDP growth accelerated to 5.12% in Q2, the strongest in two years. The Rupiah held steady, supported by stable external balances.
Tunisia’s FX reserves grew to TND 24.23 bln (USD 8.39 bln), covering 105 days of imports. The boost came from higher remittances (+8.2%), stronger tourism revenues (+10.5%), and lower imports of key foodstuffs. However, the trade deficit widened 23.9% YoY to TND 11.9 bln (USD 4.9 bln), and the current account deficit rose to 1.9% of GDP from 1.2% last year.
Brazil’s real strengthened toward 5.46 per USD, regaining ground after the legal and political disputes with the US spiked risk premiums earlier in August. The Supreme Court ruling rejecting the applicability of foreign laws domestically was interpreted as resistance to US sanctions tied to Magnitsky-related measures, raising legal uncertainty. Nonetheless, easing external pressures and a weaker dollar globally have supported the real’s recovery.
India’s rupee traded around 87.1 per USD on Wednesday, holding its biggest gain in over a month and staying near a three-week high. The improvement came as easing US tariff risks and optimism over New Delhi’s tax reforms boosted sentiment. Hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, following President Trump’s pledge of US security guarantees for Kyiv, also contributed to improved risk appetite. Domestically, Prime Minister Modi’s proposal to cut Goods and Services Tax, the most sweeping reform in eight years, reinforced expectations for stronger consumption and revived foreign portfolio inflows. The RBI’s interventions and the unwinding of long dollar positions helped stabilize the currency despite broader dollar strength.
Kazakhstan’s annual inflation held steady at 11.8% in July, the same rate as the previous month, with food and non-food prices moving up while service inflation slowed. The central bank will meet next at the end of August.
India’s 10Y G-Sec yield rose toward 6.5%, a four-month high, as Modi’s sweeping GST tax cuts stoked fiscal and debt-supply concerns despite an S&P upgrade. Risk appetite was boosted by hopes of a Russia-Ukraine deal after Trump met Putin, though Washington still plans a 25% tariff on Indian goods tied to Russian oil. The RBI’s upcoming bond auction will test demand and liquidity conditions.
Pakistan’s central bank has halved its policy rate to 11% since June 2024 and is expected to ease another 100 bps this fiscal year, according to model forecasts. The SBP kept rates on hold in July, but analysts see further cuts if inflation moderates.
Zambia’s central bank kept its key rate at 14.5%, maintaining a cautious stance to anchor inflation. SocGen expects the BoZ to keep policy steady into early 2026 before easing.
Brazil’s central bank’s economic activity index showed a second consecutive monthly decline in June, reflecting lagged effects of tight monetary policy and new US tariffs. The key interest rate remains at a near 20-year high, after hikes totaling 4.5 percentage points since September 2024. Economists expect the economy to weaken further in Q3 2025.
Paraguayan Analysts in the central bank’s monthly survey kept their year-end policy rate forecast at 6%, with expectations of 5.75% in December 2026. Inflation forecasts for 2025–26 were unchanged.
Pakistan’s central bank reserves rose by USD 11 mln to USD 14.24 bln in the week ending August 8. Total reserves including commercial banks reached USD 19.49 bln.
Colombia’s GDP grew 2.1% YoY in Q2, missing most forecasts. The result bolsters government pressure on the central bank to ease further. GDP grew just 0.5% from Q1, with mining and construction remaining weak.
Peru’s economic activity grew 4.52% YoY in June but is expected to moderate in July to 3.0%, per central bank economist Adrian Armas. Full H2 growth is forecast at 3.1% amid easing tariff-related uncertainty.
Namibia’s central bank supports adopting the South African Reserve Bank’s lower inflation target, estimating it could cut headline inflation by 1.5 ppts by 2028 with minimal growth drag. Governor Johannes Gawaxab noted that success will require controlling administered price inflation.
Zambia’s central bank kept its policy rate at 14.5% to consolidate progress on lowering inflation. The BoZ is expected to hold steady until starting a rate-cutting cycle in 1H 2026.
Peru’s central bank held its rate at 4.5% for a third month, citing near-target inflation at 1.7% and rising global trade restrictions. It is monitoring the impact of election uncertainty and US tariffs.
Malaysia’s GDP grew 4.4% YoY in Q2, missing forecasts. The central bank expects weaker external demand ahead and has cut its 2025 growth forecast to 4-4.8%, from 4.5-5.5%, amid risks from global tariffs.
Mauritius’ central bank left its key rate at 4.5%, citing a prudent stance amid medium-term risks from tariff-driven global inflation. It pledged to act between scheduled meetings if necessary.
Russia’s GDP grew 1.1% in Q2 2025, sharply down from 4% a year earlier, according to early estimates. Last year’s growth was driven by surging defence spending despite Western sanctions, but the economy now faces cooling activity and rising recession risks. High interest rates to curb stubborn inflation are weighing on output. President Putin rejected claims that the Ukraine war is crippling the economy, citing low debt and diversification. After 4.3% growth in 2024, the central bank expects 1 to 2% this year, while the economy ministry may revise its 2.5% forecast.
