India reportedly considered increasing US imports of natural gas, gold, and telecom equipment to ease tensions following President Trump’s 25% tariff threat, opting against immediate retaliation.
August 1, 2025
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India reportedly considered increasing US imports of natural gas, gold, and telecom equipment to ease tensions following President Trump’s 25% tariff threat, opting against immediate retaliation.
Sri Lanka’s central bank announced plans to raise daily digital transaction volume from 1.65 mln to 2.15 mln, launching public campaigns to boost awareness and confidence in digital payments.
Ukraine’s parliament passed a bill to restore the independence of key anti-corruption agencies, reversing a controversial law that had placed them under control of the General Prosecutor’s Office, prompting widespread protests and international criticism. President Zelensky quickly signed the bill, emphasizing Ukraine’s democratic values and responding to both domestic and foreign pressure. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s current account deficit narrowed to USD 3.12 bln in June, from a revised USD 3.45 bln in May, according to the central bank.
In Uzbekistan, annual inflation rose slightly to 8.9% in July, from 8.7% in June. Last month the central bank held interest rates at 14.0%, keeping a cautious monetary approach, aiming to curb inflationary pressures.
Kenya’s inflation rose to 4.1% in July from 3.8% in June, driven by higher food costs; the central bank expects inflation to stay below its 5% midpoint target through March 2026.
South Africa’s central bank cut its benchmark rate to 7%, the lowest since Nov 2022, signaling a new 3% inflation preference; bond breakevens fell sharply, and banking stocks rallied on the announcement.
The Dominican Republic’s central bank held rates at 5.75% for a seventh month, with inflation easing to 3.56% and growth remaining firm, supported by a liquidity injection and robust credit expansion. The DOP 81 bln June liquidity program (DOP 40 bln disbursed) aims to boost private credit as transmission gains traction. Headline inflation eased to 3.56% in June and core to 4.15%, both within the 4% ±1% target. YTD activity grew 2.4%, led by agriculture, mining, manufacturing, and services, with private credit up 8% in July. Inflation is projected to stay on target through 2026.
Israel’s natural gas exports to Egypt returned to normal at 1 bln cubic feet per day following a truce with Iran. This marks a recovery from 260 mln cf/d earlier in the week after the Leviathan field reopened, easing supply shortages in Egypt.
Colombia’s central bank held its rate at 9.25%, citing fiscal deterioration and tight global conditions. Moody’s and S&P downgraded the country amid a projected 7.1% budget deficit in 2025, the widest since the pandemic, limiting monetary easing space.
Ukraine’s state railway Ukrzaliznytsia hired Rothschild & Co to manage its mounting debt, including USD 703 mln in bonds maturing July 2026, as cash reserves plunged to USD 128 mln amid falling cargo volumes and rising costs. Revenues are down nearly 25% YoY, severely straining the company’s liquidity.
Zambia’s inflation slowed to a 14-month low of 14.1% YoY in June, helped by a rallying kwacha and lower import costs. Copper output rose nearly 30% YoY in Q1, and corn production is forecast to more than double to 3.66 mln tons in 2025. The central bank may cut rates in August if the disinflation trend persists.
Bolivia was downgraded by S&P to CCC- from CCC+ amid rising concerns over debt repayment capacity and external liquidity risks. Political gridlock is hampering macroeconomic stabilization. Moody’s had already cut Bolivia to Ca in April, while Fitch lowered it to CCC- in January.
Mexico’s central bank cut its benchmark rate by 50 bps to 8%, citing economic headwinds and uncertainty over trade policies such as Trump’s proposed tariffs. The 2025 GDP growth forecast was reduced to 0.1%, while inflation remains above the 3% target.
Bolivia’s central bank announced it is integrating local payment systems with cryptocurrencies through authorized platforms, enabling stablecoin transactions (e.g. USDT). Electronic payments rose 89% YoY to 605 mln in Jan–May 2025. Brazil’s Pix system may also join Bolivia’s ecosystem.
Brazil’s central bank intervened in currency markets by selling USD 1 bln in spot and conducting reverse swaps of the same size to boost real attractiveness and curb arbitrage. Analysts expect continued operations to reduce USD credit line exposure and stabilize FX markets.
Crude oil prices rose over 1% to above USD 65/barrel on Wednesday, rebounding from a 13% two-day plunge, its steepest drop since 2022. The market remained focused on Middle East tensions, where a US-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel appeared to hold. President Trump backed continued Chinese imports of Iranian oil, easing sanctions pressure. Still, a US intel report warned that recent strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites may have delayed its program by only a few months. Separately, EIA data showed US crude stocks fell 5.8 mln barrels last week, well above forecasts, marking a fifth straight weekly decline.
Thailand’s central bank held its key interest rate at 1.75% and raised its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 2.3%, up from the earlier range of 1.3%–2%. Growth in 2026 is expected to slow slightly to 1.7%.
According to Bloomberg analysts, Argentina’s inflation crisis sharply reduced domestic market liquidity between 2013 and 2020, pushing companies to rely on US markets. ADR activity surged, with Banco Macro’s local ticker at times handling just 2% of total trades. In contrast, Chile’s ADR liquidity ratios remained near 1.
Gold fell the most in more than five weeks as Israel and Iran appeared to be honoring a ceasefire agreement, reducing demand for the metal as a haven asset. The truce between Israel and Iran was announced, but both sides breached the agreement, and now the deal appears to be back on, with Israel agreeing to hold off on further strikes. Gold’s decline was also influenced by US economic data, including a decline in consumer confidence, and comments from Fed Chair Powell on interest rates.
Vietnam’s central bank resumed treasury bill sales to mop up excess liquidity and support the dong, selling VND 3.1 trln in 7-day bills at a 3.5% rate on Tuesday, according to An Ninh Tien Te.
Morocco held its key rate at 2.25%, citing global uncertainty tied to the Israel-Iran conflict and US policy changes. Despite caution, the central bank noted robust prospects with USD 35 bln in investments planned, including rail and airline expansions.
South Africa said limited fiscal space constrained stimulus, with measures like frozen tax brackets and spending cuts dragging on growth. Authorities argued monetary easing could help if oil-driven inflation pressures proved temporary.
Brazil’s central bank signaled a pause in its rate hikes, keeping Selic at 15%. Officials said rate cuts may begin in December, but warned that higher 2026 spending could delay disinflation and prolong tight policy.
Paraguay’s central bank held its policy rate at 6% for the 15th straight month, citing stable inflation, which slowed to 3.6% in May. Analysts expected no changes this year as the bank reaffirmed its price stability commitment.
Peru’s central bank cut its 2025 hydrocarbon sector growth forecast to 4% from 5.5%, citing Q1 output declines and infrastructure damage from heavy rains that led to a gas supply emergency.
Thailand’s baht weakened amid US-Iran tensions and growing political pressure on the PM to resign. The Bank of Thailand was expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday, with attention on oil price effects on inflation and comments from the central bank.
Guatemala’s inflation eased to 1.7% in May, while core inflation stayed near 4%. The current account surplus narrowed to 2.9% of GDP in 2024, and public debt remained under 27%. Banguat held its policy rate at 4.5%, supporting an infrastructure-focused fiscal expansion. The IMF completed its article IV mission to the country and cited prudent economic management, while emphasizing on more inclusive growth and poverty reduction
Indonesia’s interest payments were projected to peak at 2.5% of GDP in 2026–2028, up from a prior estimate of 2.4% in 2025. Analysts stated that pre-COVID levels (1.7%) may not return until after 2050 unless the fiscal deficit shrinks or interest rates decline. A 100 bps market rate hike could push the interest burden to 3.5% by 2050.
Armenia’s central bank cut its 2025 economic growth forecast to 4.6-5.1%, down from a previous estimate of 4.5-7.0%, as it cites weaker export and import projections, and shifting inflation pressures. Exports and imports are both forecasted to drop about a third this year.
Costa Rica’s central bank (BCCR) kept its policy rate at 4.0%, unchanged since October 2024. The board was divided on the decision, citing trade tensions, global uncertainty, and currency overvaluation harming tourism and exports. Inflation was forecast to return to target by Q3 2026.