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Armenia’s central bank cut its 2025 economic growth forecast to 4.6-5.1%, down from a previous estimate of 4.5-7.0%, as it cites weaker export and import projections, and shifting inflation pressures. Exports and imports are both forecasted to drop about a third this year.
Thailand is expected to cut rates by 25 bps to 1.5% on June 25, as growth risks mount and tourist arrivals slump. Weak household spending and fading export strength have added to pressure, with analysts seeing limited impact from recent government support.
Uzbekistan’s central bank has maintained interest rates at 14.0%. The bank cited heightened inflationary risks and global economic uncertainty.
Tanzania’s central bank signed deals with four mining companies to purchase 20% of their gold output, as required by law. The move aims to boost reserves and support the economy. The BoT gains first refusal rights under the Mining Act.
Serbia’s FX reserves fell EUR 306.5 mln in May to EUR 27.4 bln, but still covered 6.6 months of imports and 167% of M1. Net reserves also remained strong, despite monthly decline.
Nigeria’s central bank barred banks under regulatory forbearance from paying dividends, issuing director bonuses, or investing abroad until they exit forbearance and meet capital standards. The measure aims to build buffers amid inflation and FX pressure.
Peru’s economy grew just 1.4% YoY in April, missing forecasts due to sharp contractions in fishing (-24%) and agriculture (-8%). Weakness in these key sectors could derail the government’s 3.5% growth target. The central bank held rates at 4.5%.
Serbia’s central bank kept its key policy rate at 5.75%, citing uncertainty regarding protectionist measures and its impact on inflation and growth. The decision came as inflation eased, with the consumer price-index dropping to 3.8% in May, and economic growth slowed to 2% in the first quarter. The central bank revised its forecast for growth this year to 3.5% from 4.5%, citing political unrest, global trade tensions, and weaker external demand.
Israel is preparing potential strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, raising fears of a regional crisis. Netanyahu’s hawkish coalition and Iran’s vulnerabilities have increased the likelihood of an attack, despite Trump’s warnings. Consequences could include oil price spikes, fallout risk, and escalation across the Middle East.
Kenya’s lawmakers approved a plan to raise KES 125 bln for road projects using fuel import taxes as collateral. While it provides short-term liquidity, MPs warned of long-term risks to public finances from tying up future revenues.
Kenya’s central bank cut rates by 25 bps to 9.75% for a sixth straight time, citing subdued inflation (3.8% in May) and the need to support lending. The CBK aims to stabilize FX and keep inflation expectations anchored.
Argentina’s bonds rallied after the central bank introduced measures to boost USD reserves and clean up its balance sheet, including allowing USD bond purchases, scrapping holding period rules for foreigners, and launching a second repo deal with lenders.
Brazil’s annual inflation eased to 5.32% in May, in line with expectations. Monthly inflation was 0.26%, reducing rate hike bets, though officials still flagged risks. Interest rates remain near two-decade highs.
South Africa’s gross reserves rose 0.8% MoM to USD 68.12 bln in May, driven by stronger FX reserves and gold prices. FX reserves rose to USD 48.40 bln, while SDRs remained flat at USD 6.44 bln.
Colombia’s finance minister said there’s room for up to 400 bps in rate cuts to stimulate growth and lower debt servicing costs. He criticized the central bank’s last 25 bps cut as too timid.
India’s central bank cut the repo rate by 50 bps to 5.5% on June 6 and lowered the CRR by 1 percentage point to stimulate credit growth; while Q4 FY25 GDP came in at 7.4%, full-year growth stood at 6.5%, and Deloitte forecasts 6.3-6.5% for FY25, with markets reacting positively as the Sensex jumped 747 points despite USD 1.05 bln (INR 8,749 crore) in FPI outflows.
Myanmar’s economy remains in freefall post-coup, with FY24-25 GDP down ~1% after an 18% drop in 2021; inflation remains high, poverty affects 77% of households, and FDI has collapsed from USD 5 bln to USD 662 mln, as the country increasingly relies on illicit trade and military-driven policies.
Kazakhstan’s central bank held its policy rate at 16.5% and signaled it will likely stay at that level through end-2025 as inflation surged to 11.3% in May; reserve requirements will rise from September to absorb excess liquidity, and 2025 inflation is now forecast at 10.5%–12.5%.
Ghana’s central bank posted a GHS 9.49 bln (USD 930 mln) loss in 2024 due to rising expenses and FX-related costs but reported improved equity. Separately, BoG will soon unveil a new policy to reduce remittance inflow leakages, building on the Gold-for-Oil initiative.
Vietnam signed USD 2 bln worth of MoUs for US agricultural imports during a ministerial visit. Separately, the central bank set the daily dong reference rate at a record-low 24,982/USD, with spot around 26,027/USD. The dong is allowed to fluctuate 5% around the reference rate.
Kazakhstan’s daily oil output dropped 4% in May, mostly due to lower Tengiz production (813,200 bpd, down from 885,000). Output remained above the 1.486 mln bpd OPEC+ quota. May CPI rose 11.3% YoY and 0.9% MoM, the highest annual print since Sept 2023. Central bank Governor Suleimenov signaled possible rate hikes amid overheating concerns. Consumer lending is expanding at 30–35%, with a VAT hike planned in 2026. Separately, Kazakhstan will receive USD 280 mln from the UN Green Climate Fund for green energy and sustainable projects.
Ghana’s central bank plans to cap NPL ratios at 10% by 2026, requiring banks to write off fully provisioned unrecoverable loans. Fitch revised its end-2025 cedi forecast sharply to GHS 13/USD (from 15.5), citing a 30% rally driven by gold prices.
This is expected to ease inflation and create space for monetary easing later this year. Kenya and the UAE signed two MoUs to boost use of local currencies in bilateral trade and link payment systems. The deal includes real-time settlement and card integration.
South Africa’s central bank is considering moving to a single-point 3% inflation target. This could reduce interest rates and save ZAR 870 bln in debt service over 10 years. Discussions with Treasury are ongoing, with technical work nearly complete.
Russia’s GDP grew 1.4% YoY in Q1 2025, sharply down from 5.4% in Q1 2024, and the weakest pace since the post-sanctions recovery began. The economy ministry projected 1.7% for the quarter, with 2025 full-year growth expected at 2.5% (ministry) or 1–2% (central bank).
China’s NBS Composite PMI rose slightly to 50.4 in May from 50.2 in April, driven by a slower contraction in manufacturing. The uptick reflects easing trade tensions with the US and continued domestic stimulus efforts.
Mozambique’s central bank cut its policy rate (MIMO) to 11% from 11.75%—its ninth consecutive cut—to stimulate growth. The IMF sees GDP growth rising to 2.5% in 2025 with average inflation at 4.9%.
Zambia proposed increasing its parliamentary seats from 156 to 211 and nominated MPs from 8 to 10. The constitutional amendment is under a 30-day consultation and would raise the government’s wage and logistics bill.
Dominican Republic’s central bank kept its rate at 5.75% in May after 125 bps of cuts since mid-2024. Inflation remains within target (3.71% headline, 4.13% core). Strong exports, remittances, and FDI continue to support the peso and reserves.
South Africa’s central bank cut rates by 25 bps to 7.25%, citing lower inflation risks tied to reduced VAT plans, stronger currency, and lower oil prices. Growth forecasts were cut to 1.2% in 2025 due to trade uncertainty from US tariffs.
