Crude oil prices rose by 1.4% to USD 62.5/bbl on Friday, gaining over 2% for the week. Markets were lifted by easing US-China trade tensions, despite concerns over rising US crude stocks and IEA surplus forecasts.
May 19, 2025
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Crude oil prices rose by 1.4% to USD 62.5/bbl on Friday, gaining over 2% for the week. Markets were lifted by easing US-China trade tensions, despite concerns over rising US crude stocks and IEA surplus forecasts.
In Kyrgyzstan, annual inflation moved up slightly to 7.1% in April from 6.9% the previous month, the highest level recorded since 2023. The central bank will meet later in May, having held interest rates at 9.0% for a year. Further, annual GDP growth was 11.7% in April, down from the previous month but still one of the highest rates seen in recent years.
Nigeria’s inflation slowed to 23.7% in April from 24.2% in March, with food and core inflation also easing. Separately, S&P affirmed Nigeria’s B- rating with stable outlook.
Uganda’s central bank said it has bought USD 1.5 bln in FX this fiscal year and is using swaps to manage repo maturities. It aims to restore reserves to USD 4 bln and diversify into gold.
Bangladesh will move to a market-based exchange rate regime, central bank Governor Ahsan H. Mansur said. The exchange rate reflects stronger exports, fiscal restraint, and remittances. The central bank repealed a directive on FX spreads and announced a USD 500 mln fund to stabilize the market in case of large payments.
The IMF disbursed a USD 1.023 bln second tranche to Pakistan under the EFF program. The transfer will be reflected in FX reserves for the week ending May 16. Budget talks with the IMF continue virtually due to security concerns.
Serbia lowered its 2025 growth forecast to 3.5% from 4.5%, citing Q1 weakness, disruptions in EU auto sectors, and broader uncertainty. Inflation remains within target, said the central bank governor.
Nigeria launched a digital banking gateway for non-resident citizens (NRBVN), targeting USD 1 bln/month in remittances. Governor Cardoso announced the initiative via the central bank’s official channels.
Bank of Uganda kept its policy rate unchanged at 9.75% for a third meeting, citing global inflation risks. Annual headline inflation rose slightly to 3.5% in April, while core inflation climbed to 3.9%, nearing the 5% target.
Argentina’s central bank intervened to halt a USD 100 mln bond sale by Banco Supervielle that could have pressured the parallel peso market. The bank will instead issue its own dollar-denominated “bopreal” bonds to absorb FX demand.
Paraguay’s IMAEP contracted 2.3% m-o-m s.a. in March but rose 4.4% y-o-y. Non-agriculture/hydropower sectors grew 6.8% y-o-y in Q1. The central bank revised 2025 GDP growth up to 4.0% from 3.8%, led by retail and construction.
In Uzbekistan, total FX reserves increased a further USD 1.4 bln to reach USD 49.3 bln at the start of May. This increase came mainly as the result of higher gold prices, while the central bank sold gold holdings during the month.
Argentina’s central bank halted Banco Supervielle’s USD 100 mln dollar bond sale, which would have pressured the peso via parallel markets. The central bank plans to issue a new dollar bond (bopreal) to absorb corporate FX demand.
Peru’s central bank forecasted 4.5% YoY growth in March, citing more business days vs. 2024. Q1 growth is expected at 4%. The bank recently cut its policy rate to 4.5% amid easing inflation and tariff risk.
Ukraine’s central bank is considering moving its currency from being USD based to EUR based, on the back of In Ukraine, annual inflation in April again moved higher, to 15.1% compared to 14.6% in March. This compares to 3.2% a year earlier, and is consistent with the central bank’s warning that elevated inflation expectations are likely to drive actual inflation higher. Annual price rises for food and drink were almost 20%.
Inflation in Mongolia slowed to 8.6% in annual terms in April, from 9.1% the previous month. This was mostly due to slower food and drink inflation. At the end of April, the central bank held interest rates steady at 12.0%, following a 200bp hike in March.
The Serbian central bank has left interest rates unchanged at 5.75%, in line with expectations. The bank maintained a cautious monetary policy stance amid easing inflationary pressures and uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook. Further, Fitch Ratings has said that domestic political instability and global economic uncertainty will challenge GDP growth in Serbia. However, the agency still gives the sovereign credit a positive outlook, supported by policy agenda continuity.
Bank Indonesia reported that FX reserves fell USD 4.6 bln to USD 152.5 bln at end-April as the central bank intervened to stabilize the rupiah amid global financial volatility. Reserves still covered 6.4 months of imports and 6.2 months of imports and external debt payments—well above the international adequacy threshold.
Malaysia’s central bank kept its policy rate at 3%, stating the stance remains consistent with inflation and growth prospects. The bank noted growing downside risks from US tariff measures and global trade tensions but affirmed that its policy remains supportive of sustainable growth.
Ukraine’s central bank is considering moving its currency from being USD based to EUR based, on the back of growing integration with the European Union. Further, the country has received a further tranche of proceeds from Russian frozen assets from the EU, of EUR 1bln.
Albania central bank held interest rates at 2.75% in May, citing stable inflation and balanced economic conditions. Annual inflation in April rose slightly, to 2.3%, but continues to be below the target level of 3.0%.
Guatemala’s trade deficit narrowed to USD 1.295 bln in March, from USD 1.351 bln in February. Imports rose to USD 2.831 bln, while exports increased to USD 1.535 bln, according to central bank data.
Sri Lanka’s policy rate likely peaked, according to Bloomberg analysts, as the Central Bank kept rates on hold at 8% in January and March. With inflation expected to return in June and align with the CBSL’s 5% target by end-Q1 2026, analysts believed further easing would risk overheating and pressuring the rupee. The forward real rate of around 5.5% was projected to normalize to 2.5%–3% by early next year, supported by a narrowing output gap.
In Ukraine, a three-day ceasefire is planned to start, a spokesperson for the Kremlin announced. Russia added that is would respond militarily in case of Ukrainian strikes taking place, however. Further, US Vice President Vance says his administration are now focused on securing long-term peace in Ukraine, over a shorter-term ceasefire, adding that Russia is “asking for too much” in negotiations. Finally, Ukraine’s international reserves have risen for the second month in a row, to USD 46.7 bln, owing to external funding disbursements and lower central bank intervention.
The IMF completed its Article IV assessment of North Macedonia, in which it commended the central bank’s efforts to contain inflation, while calling for fiscal consolidation. Meanwhile, it was reported the North Macedonian government plans to borrow up to EUR 6 bln through an intergovernmental agreement with a Western country, to fund infrastructure renewal.
Kenya’s FX market equilibrium appeared likely to persist, according to Citibank, which projected the KES to remain around 129–130/USD into 2026. The shilling had stabilized since mid-2024, supported by easing oil prices and a narrowing current account deficit.
Brazil raised the Selic rate 50 bps to 14.75%, the highest since 2006, as inflation expectations remained above target through 2028. The move followed recent forecast cuts by economists amid Trump’s global tariffs, which were weighing on global trade and growth.
Kyrgyzstan’s central bank has sold USD 159 mln in a second currency intervention this year, bringing the total interventions this year to USD 237 mln. No reverse interventions, of selling KGS currency, have been conducted, the central bank said.
Argentina’s Economy Ministry paid USD 12 bln in cash to the central bank for a series of non-transferable notes maturing in June 2025, April 2026, and April 2029. The payment supports central bank balance sheet repair under the IMF agreement.
Guatemala’s overseas remittances fell to USD 1.985 bln in April from USD 2.004 bln in March, though still up 7.4% YoY. This marks a notable deceleration from March’s 18.8% YoY growth, according to the central bank.