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Kyrgyzstan’s central bank has sold USD 159 mln in a second currency intervention this year, bringing the total interventions this year to USD 237 mln. No reverse interventions, of selling KGS currency, have been conducted, the central bank said.
Argentina’s Economy Ministry paid USD 12 bln in cash to the central bank for a series of non-transferable notes maturing in June 2025, April 2026, and April 2029. The payment supports central bank balance sheet repair under the IMF agreement.
Guatemala’s overseas remittances fell to USD 1.985 bln in April from USD 2.004 bln in March, though still up 7.4% YoY. This marks a notable deceleration from March’s 18.8% YoY growth, according to the central bank.
Kazakhstan’s annual inflation rose to 10.7% in April, from 10.0% in March, primarily driven by food and services prices. The next central bank policy meeting is set for 5 June. Further, the NBK has announced it will sell between USD 950 mln and 1.05 bln of hard currency in May, a similar amount to April. In April, the central bank also sold USD 415 mln to sterilize gold purchases, quasi-sovereigns sold USD 308 mln, and the state pension fund bough USD 250 mln of hard currency.
Egypt should be cautious with rate cuts amid global uncertainty, the IMF warned. Following its first rate cut in five years last month, markets expect further easing. But the IMF flagged risks of inflation resurgence from the US-China trade war and regional tensions.
Namibia will diversify its FX reserves by adding gold, aiming for 3% of total holdings. The move comes amid US tariff risks and declining reserves, which fell 5.2% in Q1 to NAD59.7 bln (USD3.2 bln), covering 3.9 months of imports. Inflation is forecast at 4.2% in 2025.
Paraguay’s inflation eased to 0.4% MoM in April, down from 1.2% in March, due to falling fuel prices. Annual CPI slowed to 4.0% YoY, slightly above the 3.5% +/- 2 ppt target band. Core inflation held at 0.5% MoM and rose to 3.9% YoY. The central bank has kept its policy rate at 6% for over a year.
Pakistan’s IMF loan program remains on track, according to central bank governor Jameed Ahmad. FX operations are stable, reserves are projected to rise to USD 14 bln by June, and core inflation is expected to ease. The IMF review is expected to unlock further financial inflows, said Director Amin Lodhi.
Georgia’s inflation moved down slightly in April, with the annual rate at 3.4% compared to 3.5% in March. The central bank will next meet on 7 May.
Tajikistan’s central bank has cut interest rates by a further 50bp, to 8.25%, the second cut of 2025. Inflation remains at the lower end of the target range, and moved down to 3.4% YoY in March. However, policymakers considered the effects of domestic and global commodity prices, while there is also a potential slowdown in domestic demand coming.
Egypt should be cautious in easing rates further amid global uncertainty from US tariffs, the IMF warned. Egypt made its first rate cut in nearly five years last month, with economists expecting 600–800 bps in total cuts this year. The IMF stressed the need for prudent policy to restore single-digit inflation, citing risks from the US-China trade war and regional volatility.
Peru’s central bank is expected to cut its benchmark rate to 4.5% from 4.75% on May 8, according to Bloomberg analysts. The move is supported by inflation below target midpoint and tight monetary conditions, though uncertainty may limit further easing. Forward guidance is likely to stress data dependency. The government now expects 2025 GDP growth at 3.5%, down from 4%, per a Finance Ministry forecast.
Georgia’s annual economic growth moved up to 9.0% in March from 7.7% in February, leading to an average growth rate for the first quarter of 9.3%. The central bank next meets on 7 May, having kept interest rates steady for six consecutive meetings.
Economic growth in Serbia slowed substantially in Q1 2025, to a 2.0% annual pace, below economist forecasts of 3.5%, and the lowest rate since 2022. The central bank will hold its regular policy meeting on 9 May.
Kenya’s annual inflation rose to 4.1% in April, up from 3.4% in March, driven by a tight supply of key food items. Food and drink prices rose 7.1% YoY, and planned fuel price hikes may drive further inflation. With CPI approaching the upper end of its 2.5%–7.5% target, the central bank may pause its easing cycle, which has cut rates by 300 bps since August.
Colombia’s central bank unexpectedly cut its benchmark rate by 25 bps to 9.25%, bowing to political pressure from President Petro. Inflation has eased to 5.1%, but remains above target. The fiscal deficit is nearly 7% of GDP and is targeted to fall to 5.1% this year. Investors remain concerned about fiscal credibility.
Thailand may cut its benchmark one-day repurchase rate by 25 bps to 1.75% amid mounting economic headwinds from global trade tensions. The economy is also reeling from a deadly earthquake and potential 36% US tariffs on exports. Moody’s has placed Thailand’s credit outlook under review, and the Bank of Thailand is expected to release downward-revised forecasts along with updated guidance.
DR Congo’s long-term local and foreign currency issuer ratings were affirmed at B3 by Moody’s, with a Stable Outlook. The rating reflects ongoing macroeconomic risks from eastern conflict zones and commodity price swings, balanced by strong growth prospects and continued commitment to structural reforms. FX reserves and revenue have improved over the past three years, but external vulnerability remains high.
Kenya’s inflation rate rose to an eight-month high of 4.1% YoY in April 2025, from 3.6% in the previous month. Still, inflation held below the 5% midpoint of the central bank’s target range for the tenth consecutive month. Consumer prices rose by 0.3% MoM in April, slightly easing from a 0.4% increase in March.
Zambia’s kwacha has shown tentative stabilization as the country nears completion of its long-delayed debt restructuring. Talks remain ongoing with Afreximbank and TDB, and while unresolved creditor disputes risk further delays, authorities expect the restructuring to conclude by Q3. Tight liquidity conditions continue to weigh on the currency.
Colombia’s central bank is expected to hold its benchmark rate at 9.5% at its next meeting, according to a Reuters poll. While inflation fell to 5.09% in March, it remains above the 3% target range. The bank began easing in December 2023 but has since paused, despite political pressure from President Petro for more aggressive rate cuts.
Over the weekend, President Trump and President Zelensky met briefly in Rome, after which Trump made a rare criticism of President Putin on social media, over an attack on Ukrainian civilians. On Monday, Putin declared a three-day truce in the conflict, to mark the anniversary of the end of World War II. US officials voiced their disappointment at this short-lived ceasefire proposal, saying President Trump is expecting both sides to work towards a permanent end to hostilities, and that the US is “increasingly frustrated” with the leaders of both Ukraine and Russia.
Egypt’s economy is forecast by the World Bank to grow 3.8% in FY 2024/25, up 0.3 pp from its October projection. Growth will be driven by easing inflation pressures and higher private consumption. Inflation is expected to average 20.9% this fiscal year before dropping to 15.5% in FY2025/26.
The Reserve Bank of India announced a USD 15 bln debt purchase for May to add liquidity and ease the bond supply-demand imbalance. The 10-year yield fell to a near three-year low, down 40 bps YTD. Aggressive purchases, exceeding pandemic-era levels, support the RBI’s aim of maintaining liquidity at 1% surplus of net deposits.
US 10Y treasury yields held steady around 4.24% on Monday, as investors awaited April jobs data, Q1 GDP, and the PCE inflation gauge. Markets are pricing in a 25 bps Fed rate cut in June, with three cuts expected this year. Trump’s softened stance on China and Fed Chair Powell provided some market relief.
WTI crude oil futures rose to around USD 63.2/barrel on Monday, supported by hopes for easing US-China trade tensions after President Trump softened rhetoric and Beijing exempted some US goods from tariffs. Gains remain capped by concerns over a potential supply glut from OPEC+ and a possible return of Iranian crude.
The Bank of Russia kept its key rate unchanged at 21% on April 25, as expected. Inflation remains elevated, with March CPI at 10.3%. The central bank forecasts inflation to slow to 7.0–8.0% in 2025 and return to 4% by 2026. Economic growth is projected at 1–2% this year, with tight monetary policy set to persist.
Kenya’s central bank is considering adding gold to FX reserves to diversify away from USD. Kenya is seeking a new IMF program after recently issuing a Eurobond and aims to tap local markets and Middle Eastern financing. Growth is expected to be driven by agriculture and favorable weather.
Brazil’s annual inflation rose to 5.49% in March, above the 3% target. Consumer prices rose 0.43% MoM. The central bank may consider raising the Selic rate, currently at 14.25%, as stubborn inflation continues squeezing households.
Asian bond curves may steepen further on expectations of monetary easing and rising US Treasury yields. Thailand’s 2s10s spread is at its widest since September, with similar moves in India, South Korea, and the Philippines. Asian central banks may cut rates soon, supported by a weaker USD, though long-end yield spikes may undermine easing efforts.
