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Bosnia’s electoral commission has scheduled a presidential election in Republika Srpska for November, to replaced banned RS leader Milorad Dodik, who was removed for defying the international envoy, but refuses to step down. Dodik instead plans an October referendum on his position, deepening one of the country’s worst political crises since the 1990s war.
Tanzania’s electoral commission disqualified the presidential candidate of the second-largest opposition party from October elections, leaving President Samia Suluhu Hassan to face smaller rivals. Hassan and her running mate Emmanuel Nchimbi were formally cleared to contest the Oct. 29 vote.
Germany, France, and Poland used a visit to Moldova to back President Maia Sandu and warn against rising pro-Russian influence in next month’s elections, stressing that Moscow’s interference threatens the country’s EU path. While Moldova has advanced integration and gained EU support, pro-Kremlin forces remain strong, making the vote a pivotal test of its Western future.
The US Treasury has postponed sanctions on Serbia’s Gazprom Neft–owned oil company NIS for another month, marking the sixth extension, while Serbian officials stress stable fuel supplies and continue diplomatic efforts for removal from the sanctions list. Washington is pressuring for full Russian ownership withdrawal from NIS, which dominates Serbia’s oil and gas market and plays a major role in its economy.
Argentina’s government is defending the peso ahead of a debt auction to refinance ARS 9 tln in maturities. Authorities are selling peso notes and dollar-linked securities while raising reserve requirements to ensure demand. The strategy has strengthened the peso but lifted yields sharply, slowed bank lending, and increased stress in the financial system, adding political risks for President Milei ahead of the October election.
The National Bank of Kyrgyzstan kept its policy rate unchanged at 9.25%, citing geopolitical uncertainty, inflationary pressures in trading partners, and elevated domestic inflation (9.4% yoy) driven by tariff indexation and seasonal food effects.
South Africa’s presidency warned citizens against job offers in Russia after reports surfaced that recruiters were targeting women for alleged work in drone factories. Alabuga Start, linked to Russia’s Alabuga SEZ, has expanded its campaign since 2023 to hire women aged 18-22 from Africa, Latin America, and Asia. Research groups alleged that recruits ended up in drone assembly plants frequently bombed in Ukraine.
India’s embassy in Washington hired Mercury Public Affairs at USD 75,000 per month for government and media relations, amid rising tensions with the US over tariffs linked to Indian purchases of Russian oil. Mercury has a record of lobbying for foreign clients facing US scrutiny, including Denmark’s embassy and Chinese firms targeted by sanctions.
The Serbian government will introduce measures to curb inflation, including capping retail margins on essentials, lowering loan rates, and expanding subsidies. The move comes amid ongoing student protests demanding early elections, with local media speculating a general and presidential vote could be held by year-end.
South Africa’s presidency warned citizens against job offers in Russia after reports surfaced that recruiters were targeting women for alleged work in drone factories. Alabuga Start, linked to Russia’s Alabuga SEZ, has expanded its campaign since 2023 to hire women aged 18-22 from Africa, Latin America, and Asia. Research groups alleged that recruits ended up in drone assembly plants frequently bombed in Ukraine.
Argentina faced renewed market stress after bribery allegations against a Milei ally pressured dollar bonds. Economy Minister Luis Caputo attributed spreads to heightened political risk ahead of midterm elections, saying rates should normalize. Analysts warned the scandal adds uncertainty, while new spending bills passed by Congress and liquidity provisions imposed to stabilize the peso further weighed on confidence.
Bolivia’s presidential candidate Jorge Quiroga vowed to cancel contracts signed by outgoing President Luis Arce with Russia and China for lithium development, saying they would not be recognized if he wins the Oct. 19 election. Quiroga has pledged to realign foreign alliances and overhaul economic management.
Japan is considering announcing a 10 tln yen (USD 68 bln) private investment target in India over the next decade, updating its earlier 5 tln yen plan from 2022, according to Kyodo News. The announcement is expected during Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Japan later this month, as New Delhi faces heightened trade tensions with the US following Washington’s decision to impose a 50% duty on Indian exports.
Iran was hit with fresh US sanctions targeting networks accused of facilitating oil sales. The State Department designated two Chinese terminal operators for importing “millions of barrels” of Iranian crude, while the Treasury sanctioned Greek national Antonios Margaritis and associated firms and vessels for allegedly aiding petroleum exports that fund Iran’s weapons programs.
Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan said there is no justification for early parliamentary elections, reaffirming the next vote will take place in 2026. He added that by then, citizens will effectively be choosing between peace and “no peace” as Armenia continues efforts toward a peace deal with Azerbaijan.
The UK government has sanctioned Kyrgyzstan’s Capital Bank, two crypto exchanges, and individuals linked to aiding Russian sanctions evasion, for their role in facilitating transactions. The US imposed parallel measures on related crypto firms and executives.
Argentina’s President Milei reiterated the administration’s commitment to draining liquidity ahead of elections, with policy aimed at keeping real rates elevated. Short-term repo operations averaged 52%, while ARS Lecaps maturing before October traded above 60% YTM, equivalent to monthly yields above 4%. With inflation projected at 1.7%-1.8% per month, real monthly rates stood near 2.4%, implying ca. 33% annualized. Market volatility in short-term rates persisted, though the overall bias remained upward.
A new poll shows Moldova’s ruling pro-EU PAS party is projected to win only 41 of 101 parliamentary seats in the 28 September election, leaving it short of a majority. The survey also highlights a large share of undecided voters, with nearly 20% yet to choose a party. The poll showed that the pro-Russian opposition Patriotic Electoral Bloc (BEP) would poll 19.7%, with 36 seats.
Brazil’s real strengthened toward 5.46 per USD, regaining ground after the legal and political disputes with the US spiked risk premiums earlier in August. The Supreme Court ruling rejecting the applicability of foreign laws domestically was interpreted as resistance to US sanctions tied to Magnitsky-related measures, raising legal uncertainty. Nonetheless, easing external pressures and a weaker dollar globally have supported the real’s recovery.
Myanmar’s junta announced that elections will start on December 28, despite ongoing civil war and widespread skepticism from international observers. Since the 2021 coup, much of the country has been controlled by pro-democracy guerrillas and ethnic armed groups, many of which have vowed to block polls in their territories.
Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said India and China want better relations, as Chinese FM Wang Yi visited India for the first time in three years. Talks covered border disputes and set the stage for Xi Jinping and Modi’s meeting at the upcoming SCO summit. This will be Modi’s first China visit in seven years.
Ukrainian President Zelensky and European allies travelled to Washington on Monday, to learn what Donald Trump agreed with Vladimir Putin at their recent summit, fearing Kyiv could be pressured into major concessions. While Trump is pushing for a quick peace deal and possible security guarantees, allies doubt Putin’s intentions and remain uneasy about the lack of clarity in Trump’s approach.
PM of Republika Srpska in Bosnia, Radovan Viskovic, resigned on Monday, paving the way for a cabinet reshuffle. On the same day, RS President Dodik announced upcoming referendums on a recent court verdict about Dodik, the role of Bosnia’s international overseer, and ultimately the entity’s possible secession.
Bolivia held elections amid its worst economic crisis in a generation. Annual inflation is nearing 25% and the country faces severe fuel and FX shortages. The right-wing opposition is expected to gain power for the first time in 20 years.
For a second night, violent clashes erupted across Serbia as anti-government protesters and ruling party supporters confronted each other in multiple cities. Protests were originally sparked by a deadly accident at a train station in 2024, with students demanding political accountability and early elections.
Peru’s central bank held its rate at 4.5% for a third month, citing near-target inflation at 1.7% and rising global trade restrictions. It is monitoring the impact of election uncertainty and US tariffs.
Russia’s GDP grew 1.1% in Q2 2025, sharply down from 4% a year earlier, according to early estimates. Last year’s growth was driven by surging defence spending despite Western sanctions, but the economy now faces cooling activity and rising recession risks. High interest rates to curb stubborn inflation are weighing on output. President Putin rejected claims that the Ukraine war is crippling the economy, citing low debt and diversification. After 4.3% growth in 2024, the central bank expects 1 to 2% this year, while the economy ministry may revise its 2.5% forecast.
Bosnia’s top court allowed Republika Srpska President Dodik to pay a fine instead of serving a one-year prison sentence for defying a peace agreement, but he still faces a six-year ban from public office. A snap presidential election in Republika Srpska is expected by early November.
Serbia’s central bank cut its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 2.75% from 3.5%, citing weaker agricultural output, rising inflation, and lower investor confidence. For 2026 to 2027, it projects growth of 4 to 5%. President Vucic reiterated Serbia’s military neutrality and non-alignment with NATO, and announced early elections. He also confirmed there would be no constitutional changes to allow him another presidential term.
Peru’s presidential election in April could spark protests affecting MMG Ltd.’s Las Bambas copper mine, its most profitable asset, which has faced recurrent disruptions. Las Bambas, the largest copper mine in Peru, is the Chinese company’s most profitable asset, but its operations have been dogged by years of social unrest. The company is still clearing out inventories after road blockages last month interrupted the transport of semi-processed copper from the mine.
