| M | T | W | T | F | S | S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
| 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
| 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 |
| 29 | 30 | |||||
China’s factory activity slowed unexpectedly ahead of the Lunar New Year, with the manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.1, the lowest since August. The services sector also showed weakness. Economists suggest stronger fiscal stimulus is needed to address weak demand and trade challenges.
Qatar brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, enhancing its role as an international mediator. Qatar is considering mediation in other conflicts, including Afghanistan, Iran-US tensions, and Ukraine-Russia. Its success stems from its neutral stance and willingness to engage with various groups.
Qatar brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, enhancing its role as an international mediator. Qatar is considering mediation in other conflicts, including Afghanistan, Iran-US tensions, and Ukraine-Russia. Its success stems from its neutral stance and willingness to engage with various groups.
Bolivia’s economy is projected to face challenges in the medium term, with growth expected to fall to 1.8% in 2025, below the regional average of 2.3%. Growth will be impacted by the presidential elections, tensions with neighboring countries, input shortages, and a balance of payments crisis.
Bolivia’s economy is projected to face challenges in the medium term, with growth expected to fall to 1.8% in 2025, below the regional average of 2.3%. Growth will be impacted by the presidential elections, tensions with neighboring countries, input shortages, and a balance of payments crisis.
Qatar brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, enhancing its role as an international mediator. Qatar is considering mediation in other conflicts, including Afghanistan, Iran-US tensions, and Ukraine-Russia. Its success stems from its neutral stance and willingness to engage with various groups.
Bolivia’s economy is projected to face challenges in the medium term, with growth expected to fall to 1.8% in 2025, below the regional average of 2.3%. Growth will be impacted by the presidential elections, tensions with neighboring countries, input shortages, and a balance of payments crisis.
New US sanctions on Russia and a potentially tougher stance on Iran could eliminate the projected oil surplus for the year, driving prices up. Citigroup revised its Brent forecast to USD 67 per barrel from USD 62 and WTI to USD 63 from USD 58. However, sanctions could allow OPEC and allies to return some barrels to the market.
India may adjust crude oil purchases due to U.S. sanctions on Russia, seeking alternatives from OPEC, the U.S., Guyana, and Brazil. The sanctions are unlikely to significantly impact India due to its diversified suppliers. The sanctions target Russian oil producers, tankers, and traders linked to Russian cargoes.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said in an interview that any effective peacekeeping force in Ukraine must include US troops, after the idea was presented on Tuesday that support from Europe would be enough. Meanwhile, President Trump has suggested the US will impose additional sanctions against Russia, if President Putin refuses to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine.
Bolivia’s economy is projected to face challenges in the medium term, with growth expected to fall to 1.8% in 2025, below the regional average of 2.3%. Growth will be impacted by the presidential elections, tensions with neighboring countries, input shortages, and a balance of payments crisis. Analysts predict Bolivia will have one of the lowest growth rates in Latin America, with public debt reaching 87.9% of GDP in 2025 and 93.4% in 2026.
Russia’s seaborne crude exports fell by 9% last week, disrupted by US sanctions. Tankers are diverting, and buyers are seeking alternatives due to a shortage of un-sanctioned vessels at Kozmino, Russia’s key eastern port. India has allowed sanctioned tankers to discharge until March 12, but the impact is expected to be temporary as Russia seeks workarounds.
Mozambique’s new finance minister, Carla Louveira, faces a tough task in stabilizing the country’s finances amid post-election unrest and a potential debt restructuring. With a projected debt-to-GDP ratio of 96% and a loss of USD 664 mln in revenue from recent protests, Louveira must manage painful spending cuts, reform the public-wage bill, and address opposition demands while navigating scarce resources.
Crude oil prices rose to USD 76.7 per barrel after President Trump’s inauguration and plans for 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada. Trump held off on imposing tariffs on China, causing market uncertainty. Traders are also awaiting further details on sanctions on major oil exporters like Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. Lower geopolitical risk following a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas helped ease prices.
Jordan’s tourism revenue in 2024 reached JOD 5.13 bln (USD 7.24 bln), marking a 2.3% decline from the previous year. The number of tourists decreased by 3.9%, attributed to the Gaza conflict and regional tensions.
In the US, nominee for US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says he would support tighter sanctions on Russia, including on Russian oil majors, to “levels that would bring the Russian Federation to the table”, to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Russian energy minister has said a gas pipeline to Iran would go through Azerbaijan, with initial plans to transport 2 bcm a year, rising to as much as 55 bcm a year in the future.
China’s offshore yuan strengthened to 7.32 per dollar, its highest level in three weeks, as the PBoC held key lending rates steady in January. The 1-year LPR remained at 3.1%, and the 5-year LPR was kept at 3.6%. Despite a 3% drop since Trump’s election victory, China’s Q4 2024 GDP grew 5.4%, surpassing expectations, although unemployment rose to 5.1%.
Trump’s advisers are developing a sanctions strategy to support a potential Russia-Ukraine diplomatic agreement, with options including providing sanctions relief to Russian oil producers or increasing pressure on Russia. The strategy also involves a return to maximum pressure on Iran and a more aggressive stance towards Venezuela.
Benin launched a USD 500 mln bond offering with an 8.625% yield, exceeding USD 3.1 bln in investor demand. The proceeds will support the government budget, alongside a EUR 250 mln capped-tender offer for 2032 bonds.
The US has announced further Russia-related sanctions, targeting entities in Kyrgyzstan and China. Keremet Bank in Kyrgyzstan is being sanctioned for working with Russian officials and a US bank in order to evade sanctions.
A group of Lebanon bondholders is seeking to negotiate a restructuring of defaulted dollar bonds, contingent on the formation of a new government. Formal talks are expected to take months or even years but are encouraged by the recent election of a new president and prime minister.
Daniel Chapo has been sworn in as Mozambique’s president, facing economic crisis, protests, and a disputed election. He aims to restore investor confidence, address poverty, negotiate with the opposition, and resolve a debt crisis, while dealing with disruptions in natural-gas export projects.
Local media in Ukraine discussed tentative preparations for elections in the country, though timing, and whether President Zelensky would run for re-election, both remain unclear. And the EU Foreign Affairs chief Kallas has called for the lowering of the G7 price cap on Russian oil, from the current USD 60 a barrel, to about USD 40.
Oil prices rose to their highest level in five months following new US sanctions targeting Russia’s energy sector. Brent crude advanced near $81 per barrel. The sanctions, which target Russian exporters, insurance companies, and tankers, are expected to disrupt supply, particularly affecting major buyers like India and China.
India’s inflation eased to 5.22% YoY in December, but the rupee hit a new record low against the USD, reaching over 86 per USD. This mixed scenario is expected to influence the central bank cautious approach to interest rates, despite the need to support a slowing economy. Analysts predict rate cuts in February, but geopolitical factors and oil prices add uncertainty.
Thousands of supporters of former Bolivian President Evo Morales marched to La Paz to protest against economic hardships, driven by high inflation (9.9% in 2024), fuel shortages, and a depreciating currency. The protests highlight the worsening economic conditions in the country.
Emerging-market central banks are intensifying efforts to shield local currencies from speculative attacks and fiscal shortfalls. In Latin America, central banks are battling hot money, while in Asia, the People’s Bank of China is deploying more tools to protect the yuan amid disappointing fiscal stimulus and US tariff threats. The US dollar’s strength has put global central banks on high alert, although governments are constrained by high debt levels.
The EU disbursed its first EUR 3 bln tranche of a loan to Ukraine, backed by interest earned on frozen Russian assets. Meanwhile, the FT cited EU officials stating that the Trump administration is reviewing its approach to Ukraine and intends to continue providing financial assistance even after taking power on January 20. Analysts at the Atlantic Council have noted that three years into the conflict in Ukraine, the Russian economy is now experiencing the full impact of economic sanctions, which will lead to additional strain on Moscow.
Serbia left its benchmark interest rates unchanged at 5.75%, in line with the median forecast, though some analysts had expected a 25bps cut. The central bank stated it was exercising caution in light of geopolitical and price risks. Inflation has remained within the target range of 1.5% to 4.5% since May last year. In November, inflation was 4.3% YoY.
Lebanon’s lawmakers elected army commander Joseph Aoun as president after more than two years without a leader. Aoun, a US-backed candidate, received more than two-thirds of the vote, signaling a shift toward the West. His election ends a prolonged power vacuum and reflects diminished Iranian influence in the region, particularly after Hezbollah’s weakening due to last year’s conflict with Israel.
