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Peru’s presidential election in April could spark protests affecting MMG Ltd.’s Las Bambas copper mine, its most profitable asset, which has faced recurrent disruptions. Las Bambas, the largest copper mine in Peru, is the Chinese company’s most profitable asset, but its operations have been dogged by years of social unrest. The company is still clearing out inventories after road blockages last month interrupted the transport of semi-processed copper from the mine.
In Moldova, fugitive pro-Russian tycoon Ilan Shor has offered Moldovans USD 3,000 a month to join protests against the pro-European government ahead of next month’s elections. Authorities called this “criminal incitement” and linked it to Moscow’s influence campaign in the country.
Angola was poised to re-enter international debt markets as Eurobond yields dropped, though issuance was unlikely this year unless borrowing costs fell further. A global roadshow earlier this year suggested favourable conditions for an April-May sale, but geopolitical tensions and lower oil prices led to a postponement.
Côte d’Ivoire saw thousands protest against the exclusion of four main opposition leaders, including Laurent Gbagbo and Tidjane Thiam, from the October presidential election. The electoral commission barred their candidacies earlier this year, prompting political tensions in West Africa’s largest francophone economy.
Cambodia and Thailand agreed to a 13-point ceasefire plan to de-escalate border tensions, aiming for lasting peace and stability.
Guinea-Bissau’s President Umaro Sissoco Embalo dismissed Prime Minister Rui Duarte de Barros, appointing Braima Camara ahead of November elections. The reshuffle follows political controversy over Embalo’s term in a nation with a history of coups since independence from Portugal.
China had its A+ sovereign rating affirmed by S&P, which cited strong fiscal stimulus and expected a return to 4%+ growth; the agency warned that excessive stimulus or delays in fiscal consolidation could trigger a downgrade.
Serbia’s central bank kept its key interest rate unchanged at 5.75%, prioritizing inflation control as annual inflation rose to 4.6% in June, above its upper target limit. Despite weaker economic growth due to political unrest and reduced investment, the bank expects activity to pick up later this year.
Bosnia’s election commission has revoked Milorad Dodik’s mandate as President of Republika Srpska, after a court upheld his one-year prison sentence and a six-year political ban, for defying an international envoy. Dodik has rejected the decision, while it remains uncertain whether the central government can enforce the ruling.
A Moldovan court has sentenced Evghenia Gutul, the pro-Russian head of the autonomous Gagauzia region, to seven years in prison for illegal party funding linked to a fugitive oligarch, amid rising tensions ahead of Moldova’s parliamentary elections. Gutul denies wrongdoing and may appeal the verdict.
Côte d’Ivoire saw violent unrest as opposition leaders were barred from the Oct. 25 election, including ex-President Gbagbo and Tidjane Thiam; arrests triggered protests and accusations of political repression.
S&P Ratings has affirmed Bosnia and Herzegovina’s ‘B+/B’ sovereign credit ratings with a stable outlook, citing strong fiscal performance and a stable currency board arrangement, despite limited policy flexibility. While political tensions and secession threats from Republika Srpska persist, S&P does not expect these to escalate.
Malawi’s President Chakwera selected 43-year-old reformist Trade Minister Mumba as his 2025 election running mate to appeal to youth amid 27% inflation and rising living costs. Polls show ex-President Mutharika leading with 43% vs Chakwera’s 26%.
Colombia’s central bank held its policy rate at 9.25% in June, with a divided vote: 4 for a hold, 2 for a 50 bps cut, and 1 for 25 bps. Inflation eased to 4.8% from 5.1% in May, led by declines in food and electricity prices. Core inflation remained at 4.8%. May’s economic activity rose 2.7% YoY, driven by services, while Q2 GDP is estimated to have grown 2.7% (annualized), fueled by a 4.1% rise in domestic demand. External conditions remain tight, and the Board reiterated a data-dependent approach amid lingering global trade and geopolitical risks.
India reportedly considered increasing US imports of natural gas, gold, and telecom equipment to ease tensions following President Trump’s 25% tariff threat, opting against immediate retaliation.
Ukraine’s parliament passed a bill to restore the independence of key anti-corruption agencies, reversing a controversial law that had placed them under control of the General Prosecutor’s Office, prompting widespread protests and international criticism. President Zelensky quickly signed the bill, emphasizing Ukraine’s democratic values and responding to both domestic and foreign pressure. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s current account deficit narrowed to USD 3.12 bln in June, from a revised USD 3.45 bln in May, according to the central bank.
Serbia’s economy grew by 2.0% YoY in Q2 2025, maintaining the same pace as in Q1. The slowdown from 2024’s 3.9% growth rate is attributed to global trade tensions and domestic political unrest, though forecasters expect growth to rebound in the coming years.
Russia resumed LNG activity at its Arctic LNG 2 facility, docking a tanker for the first time since US sanctions stalled the project in October. Moscow has assembled a “shadow fleet” of 13 ships to service Arctic exports, targeting Asian buyers amid scrutiny from US and EU officials.
Serbia saw violent clashes between police and anti-government protesters in Belgrade, with dozens arrested and use of stun grenades. Demonstrations were triggered by a fatal train accident, but President Vucic rejected early elections and accused foreign interference.
South Africa’s coalition government survived after the Democratic Alliance opted to remain despite Ramaphosa’s dismissal of its deputy minister. However, the DA will boycott the national dialogue and oppose parts of the budget, complicating future legislation.
Argentina’s farmers are rushing soy and corn export registrations ahead of President Milei’s tariff relief expiry. Over 2.5 mln metric tons were licensed in a single day, as traders anticipate potential tariff extensions or adjustments next year.
Crude oil prices rose over 1% to above USD 65/barrel on Wednesday, rebounding from a 13% two-day plunge, its steepest drop since 2022. The market remained focused on Middle East tensions, where a US-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel appeared to hold. President Trump backed continued Chinese imports of Iranian oil, easing sanctions pressure. Still, a US intel report warned that recent strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites may have delayed its program by only a few months. Separately, EIA data showed US crude stocks fell 5.8 mln barrels last week, well above forecasts, marking a fifth straight weekly decline.
US President Trump has said he had a “good” meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the NATO summit, and that the US will look at sending more Patriot air-defense batteries to Ukraine. Zelensky described the meeting as “long and substantive”. Current US funding for military aid in Ukraine runs out in the summer, and Trump has suggested he would not renew this.
Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Chernyshov has been named in a corruption probe, the highest-level official to be implicated in such an investigation under President Zelensky’s government. Chernyshov denies any wrongdoing. Further, Head of the Presidential Office Yermak has stated that Ukraine will hold elections “as soon as the opportunity arises”, and said that President Zelensky should run for a second term in office.
Israel and Iran appeared to honor a ceasefire after early breaches, following mediation by US President Trump. The truce shifted focus back to nuclear diplomacy, with the UN atomic watchdog preparing to resume inspections. Iran insisted on its right to civilian uranium enrichment.
Thailand’s baht weakened amid US-Iran tensions and growing political pressure on the PM to resign. The Bank of Thailand was expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday, with attention on oil price effects on inflation and comments from the central bank.
Thailand and Cambodia escalated tensions by closing multiple border crossings. The dispute stemmed from a leaked phone call between Thailand’s PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Cambodia’s former leader Hun Sen. Cambodia suspended fuel imports and sought ICJ intervention in land disputes.
Armenian PM Pashinyan is in Turkey to meet with President Erdogan, the first official visit in the history of independent Armenia. The two countries do not have formal diplomatic relations, due to the ongoing standoff between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and historic tensions between the countries. Azerbaijan’s President Aliyev is also visiting Istanbul at the same time, though no bilateral or trilateral meeting has been confirmed.
Nigeria and Benin signed a bilateral integration agreement on June 21 during the West Africa Economic Summit in Abuja, aiming to deepen cooperation and serve as a model for broader ECOWAS regional integration.
Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro proposed holding a referendum alongside the 2026 elections to create a constituent assembly for constitutional reform. Congressional leaders and legal experts questioned the legality of bypassing legislative approval.
