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Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro proposed holding a referendum alongside the 2026 elections to create a constituent assembly for constitutional reform. Congressional leaders and legal experts questioned the legality of bypassing legislative approval.
China’s President Xi visited Kazakhstan ahead of the G7 summit, aiming to deepen ties and hedge against US tensions. China is a top-5 investor in Kazakhstan with USD 26 bln in capital, and signed USD 24 bln in new deals during the Central Asia–China forum.
Kazakhstan for the second China-C5 summit, alongside bilateral meetings. The meeting took place at the same time as G7 meetings in Canada. Further, Kazakhstan Development Bank received a USD 1 bln credit line from China Development Bank, as part of the summit.
Israel and Iran continued mutual bombardments for a third day, causing at least 13 deaths in Israel and 80 in Iran. The conflict rattled global markets, driving up oil prices and dragging down equities, as international calls for de-escalation mounted.
Ukraine was promised up to EUR 9 bln in military aid by Germany, according to Defense Minister Pistorius, though Berlin ruled out sending Taurus missiles. President Zelenskiy and Pistorius met in Kyiv, and further sanctions on Russia were discussed at the G7 summit.
Serbia’s central bank kept its key policy rate at 5.75%, citing uncertainty regarding protectionist measures and its impact on inflation and growth. The decision came as inflation eased, with the consumer price-index dropping to 3.8% in May, and economic growth slowed to 2% in the first quarter. The central bank revised its forecast for growth this year to 3.5% from 4.5%, citing political unrest, global trade tensions, and weaker external demand.
Kenya presented a USD 32.5 bln FY25/26 budget aimed at reviving growth after floods and protests weakened 2024 growth to 4.7% from 5.7%. New measures include industrial support and business stimulus, according to Treasury Secretary John Mbadi.
Pakistan’s climate minister accused India of manipulating Indus River flows, claiming water from the Chenab River was reduced by 90% to harm Pakistani agriculture. Both countries are now seeking international backing amid escalating tensions and a fragile ceasefire.
The European Union proposed a new sanctions package against Russia, including banning Nord Stream pipelines, cutting 22 banks from SWIFT, slashing the oil price cap to USD 45, and listing 77 vessels. Measures require unanimous support from all 27 member states.
Kazakhstan’s crude oil exports were projected to remain near record highs in July, with CPC Blend shipments from Russia’s Black Sea port estimated at 1.65–1.75 mln b/d. Rising production has fueled OPEC+ tensions, but officials stated output limits cannot be forced on foreign investors, with Kashagan development continuing.
Mozambique’s GDP shrank 3.9% YoY in Q1 2025, down from -5.7% in Q4 2024, due to political tensions and weather shocks. May inflation rose marginally to 4.0% YoY from 3.99%.
United States President Trump’s openness to letting the Russia–Ukraine war continue has stalled Senate plans for new sanctions. Europe is proceeding with tighter Russian restrictions, while Ukraine supports the bill aiming to cost Russia USD 60 bln annually.
Peru’s business leaders remained short-term optimistic, but 12-month expectations weakened ahead of 2026 elections. BCRP projects 4.1% private investment growth in 2025, down from 8.8% in Q1, while its confidence survey remains above the 50-point optimism threshold.
Istanbul hosted a new round of direct peace talks, lasting just over an hour. Russia and Ukraine exchanged documents and prepared for another prisoner swap. Aerial attacks and ongoing tensions continued, with Moscow rejecting a US ceasefire proposal.
Serbian President Vucic said inflation likely slowed to 3.8% in May—below 4% for the first time in a year. He also expects 2025 GDP growth to exceed 3%, despite political unrest.
The USD index (DXY) edged toward 99 on Tuesday, recovering after earlier losses despite weak manufacturing data and rising trade tensions. Trump threatened to double steel tariffs to 50%, while tensions with China escalated after Beijing denied breaching the May trade truce and vowed retaliation. The USD gained against the yen, euro, and aussie ahead of new US data releases.
Russia’s GDP grew 1.4% YoY in Q1 2025, sharply down from 5.4% in Q1 2024, and the weakest pace since the post-sanctions recovery began. The economy ministry projected 1.7% for the quarter, with 2025 full-year growth expected at 2.5% (ministry) or 1–2% (central bank).
US President Trump announced a tariff hike on steel and aluminum imports from 25% to 50%, effective Wednesday, aiming to protect US industry and cut dependence on China. At a Pittsburgh rally, he promoted a USD 14 bln Nippon Steel investment and promised USD 5,000 bonuses for US steelworkers, despite admitting he hadn’t reviewed the deal. Concerns were raised over union contracts, while the EU warned of possible retaliation, stoking fears of renewed trade tensions.
Gold prices jumped above USD 3,310/oz after Trump threatened to double steel and aluminum tariffs by June 4. The move raised safe-haven demand amid legal disputes over past tariffs and renewed tensions with China.
Bangladesh’s provisional estimate shows FY25 GDP growth slowing to 3.97%, the weakest since FY20, dragged by agriculture and compounded by export risks linked to energy shortages and trade tensions with India.
China’s NBS Composite PMI rose slightly to 50.4 in May from 50.2 in April, driven by a slower contraction in manufacturing. The uptick reflects easing trade tensions with the US and continued domestic stimulus efforts.
Crude oil prices climbed to USD 61.2/bbl on Wednesday after Trump warned of new sanctions on Russia and blocked Chevron from exporting Venezuelan crude. However, gains were capped by the expected OPEC+ output hike of 411k bpd. The EU is also reviewing US investment flows after tariff delays.
Bangladesh’s economy is estimated to grow just 3.97% in FY25, the slowest pace in five years, dragged by agriculture (1.79% vs 3.3% a year earlier) and weakening apparel exports. Garment shipments could fall USD 2 bln due to India tensions, higher tariffs, and energy shortages, further pressuring reserves and GDP.
Russia was accused by President Trump of “killing a lot of people” and being “absolutely crazy” amid a surge in attacks on Ukraine. Trump is considering new sanctions, while Ukraine reported record drone and missile strikes. Russia claimed they were retaliatory strikes after Ukraine targeted civilian infrastructure.
Kenya’s growth is expected to slow to 4.5% in 2025 from 4.7% in 2024, according to the World Bank, citing tight finances and high debt. Reforms to plug payroll leaks (KES 8.7 bln wasted over FY19–FY23) are needed but may face pushback ahead of 2027 elections. Investor confidence remains weak despite IMF engagement.
China’s central bank (PBoC) directed major lenders to increase the share of yuan in cross-border trade settlements to 40% from 25%, aiming to reduce reliance on USD transactions amid tariff tensions. Exporters will benefit from improved settlement systems and reduced service fees.
The EU is drafting measures to financially and politically isolate leaders in Bosnia’s Republika Srpska, including sanctions and a travel ban against officials. This includes President Milorad Dodik, who is aiming to develop further autonomy and possible independence for his region. Potential measures may also be suspension of EU-funded projects and the end of international financial institution funding for projects.
Georgia has suspended the re-exports of cars by Russian and Belarusian citizens, addressing a loophole which had allowed goods to be sent to third countries, despite an existing ban on direct exports to Russia and Belarus. Analysts commented that the new restrictions appear to signal the country’s commitment to EU sanctions. Meanwhile, a prominent opposition leader in Georgia, Zurab Japaridze, of the Girchi party, has been jailed, amid further government crackdowns on dissent.
Brazil’s 10Y bond yield hovered at 14.15%, reflecting concerns over fiscal sustainability and the high Selic rate (14.75%). Markets remain skeptical of the government’s primary surplus targets amid global rate pressures and domestic election-year risks.
The USD index (DXY) fell to around 99.6 on Friday, set for a weekly loss of over 1%, pressured by rising US fiscal concerns after Trump’s new budget bill, which includes tax cuts and higher defense spending – was estimated by the CBO to add nearly USD 4 tln to the national debt. Sentiment was further hit by Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating to Aa1, citing ballooning deficits and rising debt-servicing costs. The USD also faced pressure from stalled trade talks, though China and the US agreed to maintain open communication following a high-level call.
