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G7 finance ministers and central bank governors pledged coordinated action against global economic imbalances and non-market policies—implicitly criticizing China’s subsidies. They also discussed tightening Russia sanctions and called for deeper analysis of market concentration and supply chain risks.
Mongolia’s ruling coalition is on the verge of collapse as the Prime Minister faces political scrutiny, amid continuing protests calling for his resignation. Disagreements between coalition parties have escalated, with one party already being ejected from the coalition. A parliamentary session will be held today.
Nigeria’s ruling APC endorsed President Tinubu for a second term in 2027. Reform momentum may slow in his final pre-election years, with tax administration reforms likely the last major effort. Oil sector changes may be postponed until after the election.
The EU and UK have approved further sanctions on Russia, targeting its shadow fleet of shipping vessels, financial sector, and military. However, US Secretary of State Rubio commented that threatening Russia with further sanctions at the moment could cause them to walk away from peace talks with Ukraine. Rubio has also stated that a written peace proposal from Russia is expected “in a number of days”.
Nigeria’s top opposition figures—Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Nasir El-Rufai—have united under the African Democratic Congress ahead of 2027 elections. Internal disagreements on candidacy may challenge the alliance, but their combined vote share could unseat the incumbent.
South Africa’s finance minister presented a budget focused on consolidation, cutting spending and forecasting slower growth while keeping debt on a sustainable path. The budget won backing from the opposition and markets, easing political tensions.
South Africa’s government is offering Elon Musk a workaround to Black-ownership rules to launch Starlink, proposing infrastructure and rural access initiatives instead of equity. The move follows tensions with Musk and Trump over race and land narratives.
Tanzania postponed its first oil and gas licensing round since 2014 to 2026, citing the need for regulatory approvals. The round was initially planned for the Africa Energies Summit. The USD 42 bln LNG megaproject with Shell, Equinor, and ExxonMobil remains under negotiation.
Bolivia’s election board closed candidate registration for the August vote, confirming Evo Morales is ineligible under constitutional term limits. His backup party lacked legal status. Protests and roadblocks followed, while another candidate, Andrónico Rodríguez, faces legal challenges to his registration.
China’s 10Y government bond yield slipped to 1.67%, near three-month lows, after the PBoC cut key lending rates for the first time in seven months. Both the one-year and five-year loan prime rates were lowered by 10 bps to record lows of 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively, following broader easing measures earlier this month. The move comes amid weak economic momentum and renewed US-China tensions, after Washington warned against using Chinese semiconductors, prompting Beijing to accuse the US of undermining trade talks and engaging in discriminatory practices.
India is negotiating a phased trade deal with the US and aims to finalize an interim agreement before Trump’s reciprocal tariffs begin in July, per Bloomberg. The first phase would address market access and ease non-tariff barriers, while a broader second-stage pact—covering 19 focus areas—could be signed later this year during the Quad summit. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal is in Washington to push talks forward, though a final agreement requiring US congressional approval is unlikely before 2026.
In Serbia, FDI during the first quarter of 2025 fell 55% compared to a year earlier, as political unrest and slowing growth compressed investor sentiment. The central bank reported these flows were worth EUR 556 mln during the period.
Tanzania delayed its first oil and gas licensing round in a decade to 2026. The round was planned for the Africa Energies Summit last week. The country holds 57 trillion cubic feet of reserves and is negotiating a USD 42 bln LNG project with Shell, Equinor, and ExxonMobil.
The IMF imposed 11 new conditions on Pakistan to release the next tranche of its bailout, including parliamentary approval of a PKR 17.6 trn budget and tariff reforms. It warned that sustained tensions with India pose risks to the programme’s fiscal and external goals.
Direct talks between Russia and Ukraine have taken place in Istanbul, for the first time in three years. A potential ceasefire was discussed, and the two countries have agreed to a prisoner swap. Further, the EU is preparing new sanctions to target third-party banks that support Russia’s economy.
Crude oil prices rose by 1.4% to USD 62.5/bbl on Friday, gaining over 2% for the week. Markets were lifted by easing US-China trade tensions, despite concerns over rising US crude stocks and IEA surplus forecasts.
Iran is reviewing a US proposal to curb uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief. President Trump warned the offer was time-bound and threatened military action. Brent fell 3.3% to USD 63.90/bbl on de-escalation hopes.
WTI crude climbed to USD 63.8/bbl amid fresh Iran sanctions threats and a temporary US-China tariff truce. OPEC+ output rose sharply since April, but crude remains down 10% since early April.
In Albania, Prime Minister Edi Rama is on track to win a fourth term in office, following his party winning 52% of the vote in the parliamentary election. Rama has vowed to steer the country into the EU, and to continue to build the tourism industry.
Ivory Coast opposition leader Tidjane Thiam resigned as head of the Democratic Party of Ivory Coast following court rulings challenging his eligibility. He will serve as deputy chairman until new elections are held on May 14.
Fitch affirmed Jordan’s rating at ‘BB-‘ with a Stable Outlook, citing macro stability, reform progress, and resilient financing from a liquid banking sector, pension fund, and international support. Constraints include high government debt, moderate growth, political risks, and large external imbalances. Geopolitical risk remains elevated amid the Israel-Iran tensions and Gaza war. In Fitch’s base case, strong multilateral and US support will continue, given Jordan’s stabilizing role. The agency highlights Jordan’s ability to preserve stability despite repeated shocks and rising debt.
IMF’s Executive Board approved a USD 1 bln disbursement to Pakistan, part of its broader USD 7 bln program. The funds will bolster reserves and offer macro relief amid heightened regional tensions. The program has sparked domestic political backlash due to austerity measures.
Crude oil prices rose 3.2% to USD 59.9/bbl, lifted by hopes of US-China trade talks and a new US-UK trade pact. US Treasury Secretary Bessent is expected to meet China’s top economic official in Switzerland on May 10. However, OPEC+ production hikes and geopolitical risks may cap further gains.
Malaysia’s central bank kept its policy rate at 3%, stating the stance remains consistent with inflation and growth prospects. The bank noted growing downside risks from US tariff measures and global trade tensions but affirmed that its policy remains supportive of sustainable growth.
India–Pakistan tensions escalated after India launched “precise and restrained” strikes in response to a deadly attack in Kashmir. Pakistan condemned the strikes as an “act of war” that killed 31 civilians and said it reserved the right to retaliate. Global concern intensified, with US President Trump calling the situation “terrible” and Secretary of State Rubio closely monitoring developments.
China’s offshore yuan fell to around 7.21 per USD after the PBoC announced 10 bps cuts to key lending rates and a 50 bps reduction to the reserve requirement ratio, injecting CNY 1 trln in liquidity. Meanwhile, Vice Premier He Lifeng is set to meet US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer this week in Switzerland, aiming to ease tariff tensions amid up to 145% tariffs imposed by President Trump and 125% retaliatory tariffs from Beijing.
President Trump has said that low oil prices can help to increase pressure on Russian state finances, supporting a higher chance of peace in Ukraine. Separately, it was reported that the EU is developing a plan to ban Russian gas imports from 2027, and is also planning to propose further sanctions on Russia’s shadow oil tankers.
The IMF has commented that Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan’s public debt levels remain relatively low, but the Caucasus and Central Asia region faces risks from global trade tensions. The fund added that exports, remittances, have capital flows have supported growth in recent years, though at a slower pace in 2024 than previous years.
Egypt should be cautious with rate cuts amid global uncertainty, the IMF warned. Following its first rate cut in five years last month, markets expect further easing. But the IMF flagged risks of inflation resurgence from the US-China trade war and regional tensions.
India and Pakistan tensions remain high after last week’s Kashmir militant attack. The US has urged both countries to de-escalate, amid Indian accusations that Pakistan was behind the killings and Pakistani warnings of retaliation. Indian assets remain stable, while Pakistan’s fragile economy—dependent on IMF support—faces growing investor pressure.
