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Bangladesh kicked off three days of mass rallies in Dhaka on Thursday, led by rival political groups ahead of elections promised by interim leader Muhammad Yunus. Yunus, who took over after Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled into exile during last year’s uprising, said polls could be held as early as December or by mid-2026. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party is expected to dominate and will hold a major rally on May Day.
India and Pakistan tensions remain high after last week’s Kashmir militant attack. The US has urged both countries to de-escalate, amid Indian accusations that Pakistan was behind the killings and Pakistani warnings of retaliation. Indian assets remain stable, while Pakistan’s fragile economy—dependent on IMF support—faces growing investor pressure.
Thailand may cut its benchmark one-day repurchase rate by 25 bps to 1.75% amid mounting economic headwinds from global trade tensions. The economy is also reeling from a deadly earthquake and potential 36% US tariffs on exports. Moody’s has placed Thailand’s credit outlook under review, and the Bank of Thailand is expected to release downward-revised forecasts along with updated guidance.
Botswana expects Anglo-American to sell its 85% stake in De Beers by end-2025, according to Vice President and Finance Minister Ndaba Gaolathe. Botswana, which holds a 15% stake, wants a say in the buyer selection and is seeking a long-term partner with deep financial capacity. Anglo is exiting De Beers after a USD 4.1 bln write-down in February, driven by falling natural diamond prices and competition from lab-grown alternatives.
India and Pakistan tensions are rising after militant attacks in Kashmir, with Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif warning that war is possible but could still be averted. China, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf states are working to defuse the situation. India and Pakistan last came close to full-scale war in 2019.
The US has announced a further delay to sanctions being imposed on Serbia’s national oil refiner NIS. The company is majority owned by Russia’s Gazpromneft, and the US has demanded a restructuring of the ownership. The implementation of sanctions is now delayed until 27 June, which is the third postponement to be announced.
Moody’s has affirmed Moldova’s B3 credit rating with a stable outlook. The agency cited high exposure to regional geopolitical risk, given its proximity to Ukraine, while upside risks come from an improving institutional and governance framework, in the context of the EU accession process.
Iran is pitching its economy to the US as a trillion-dollar investment opportunity as it seeks a lasting nuclear accord. Tehran is offering potential cooperation in nuclear, oil, and gas sectors, contingent on sanctions relief and domestic reforms. Khamenei’s hardliners have aligned behind the push amid mounting economic pressures at home.
Investors poured USD 305.2 mln into Latin America equity ETFs last week, as the region’s relative insulation from Trump’s trade war boosted sentiment. Brazil led inflows with USD 145.6 mln. Potential triggers ahead include Chile’s elections, Argentina’s reform agenda, and Brazil’s 2026 presidential race.
WTI crude oil futures rose to around USD 63.2/barrel on Monday, supported by hopes for easing US-China trade tensions after President Trump softened rhetoric and Beijing exempted some US goods from tariffs. Gains remain capped by concerns over a potential supply glut from OPEC+ and a possible return of Iranian crude.
The ruling resolves coalition government tensions over the measure. South Africa’s Democratic Alliance leader John Steenhuisen reaffirmed the party’s commitment to the coalition government despite tensions. Steenhuisen called for reforms to boost the economy, which is expected to grow just 1% this year, and urged bringing private investors into inefficient port operations.
Kyrgyzstan’s next presidential election will take place in January 2027, it has been announced. Local analysts said this could indicate President Japarov is considering running for a second term in office.
A new survey in Moldova shows support for the ruling pro-Europe PAS party is falling, and would attract only 24.4% of the vote currently. A series of opposition and pro-Russian parties have improved in the polls. According to Prime Minister Recean, the next parliamentary election will be held in September.
Serbian lawmakers have approved Djuro Macut as the new Prime Minister, in a move that the government hopes will quell expanding anti-establishment street protests. Analysts said that Macut is expected to rely heavily on President Vucic and the ruling party, for political support.
Iran refused to negotiate over its uranium enrichment program, warning that shifting US demands could collapse the talks. Tehran criticized contradictory US positions and reaffirmed its right to nuclear development under international oversight. The IAEA continues urging both sides to strike a deal that ensures non-proliferation in exchange for sanctions relief.
Namibia’s central bank held its benchmark rate at 6.75%, citing global trade tensions and FX-driven inflation risks. Governor Gawaxab noted that slower global growth may soften commodity prices, but this is being offset by a weaker currency. The bank raised its inflation forecasts to 4.2% for 2024 and 4.5% for 2025.
A key political party in Bangladesh demanded elections be held by December, warning that delays could escalate political and economic risks. The interim administration led by Muhammad Yunus reiterated the election window remains between December and June, not signaling a deliberate delay. BNP’s call reflects growing unease over the country’s political transition.
China ordered its airlines to halt deliveries of Boeing jets and suspend purchases of US-made aircraft equipment, in retaliation for US tariffs of up to 145% on American goods. The move delivers a major blow to Boeing, already losing market share in China due to trade tensions. China’s own 125% tariffs unveiled over the weekend would make US aircraft imports financially unfeasible.
Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party is planning to appeal to the Constitutional Court to ban the “collective United National Movement”, an opposition party. This make take place only after local elections are completed in October.
Armenia’s economic growth slowed during the first two months of this year, with activity expanding 4.1%, compared to GDP growth of 5.9% in 2024. The slowdown is attributed to the fading benefits of activity being rerouted through Armenia because of Western sanctions on Russia.
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa appointed Mcebisi Jonas as special envoy to the US to repair strained bilateral ties. Jonas will lead diplomatic engagement and private-sector outreach amid tensions over South Africa’s ICJ case against Israel and Trump’s criticism over land reform. The appointment follows the US expulsion of South Africa’s ambassador last month.
Last week, IMF staff and Honduras reached a staff-level agreement on the third review of the EFF/ECF programs. Board approval, expected in June, would release USD 155 mln. The IMF said the economy remains resilient and praised fiscal discipline ahead of elections. Honduras’ economic activity rose 2.2% YoY in February, down from 4.3% in January, per the central bank.
China’s aggregate financing rose by CNY 5.89 tln in March, exceeding expectations amid a surge in government bond issuance to offset US tariffs. New loans totaled CNY 3.64 tln, while net sovereign and local bond financing reached a record CNY 1.5 tln—the highest for any March since 2017—according to PBOC data. The government had pledged front-loaded fiscal spending to cushion looming trade tensions.
Tesla halted orders in China for its US-imported Model S and Model X vehicles due to rising US-China trade tensions. Only Model 3 and Model Y are produced locally. China accounted for over 20% of Tesla’s revenue last year, and the halt risks further weakening its foothold in the market.
The Government of Vietnam reaffirmed its 2025 GDP growth target of 8% or higher, prioritizing macro stability and economic restructuring. The resolution notes that the global economic and political landscape remains complex and volatile, with ongoing military conflicts, escalating trade tensions, and disrupted global value chains. Domestically, the country faces increasing challenges such as extreme weather, electricity supply risks, and inflationary pressure.
Fitch affirmed Egypt’s long-term foreign-currency IDR at B with a Stable Outlook, citing strong external support, a large economy, and high growth potential. These strengths are offset by weak public finances, large external funding needs, high inflation, and geopolitical risks.
Brazil’s annual inflation rose to 5.48% in March—the highest in two years—exceeding forecasts. Economic activity grew 0.44% MoM in February. The inflation spike may prompt a rate hike from the current 14.25% at the May 7 central bank meeting, with investors wary of further trade tensions under Trump.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva agreed to strengthen trade ties between their nations as a counter to US President Trump’s shifting positions on global tariffs. Their meeting on the sidelines of a regional summit in Honduras focused on strategizing responses to Trump’s tariffs and escalating deportations. Frustrations over Trump’s deportation tactics and legal and human rights criticisms add to the economic turmoil in the region.
The Vietnamese dong weakened to an all-time low, with USD/VND rising 0.9% to 26,016, as trade tensions between the US and China escalated. The central bank weakened the daily reference rate, and the stock market dropped 6.4%. With Vietnam’s heavy reliance on both China and the US, the dong is expected to remain under pressure unless a trade truce is reached between the two countries.
Iran will begin high-level talks with the US in Oman this weekend to resolve a standoff over Tehran’s nuclear program. The talks will be led by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US President’s special envoy Steve Witkoff, mediated by Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Al Busaidi. The negotiations, focused on sanctions relief, will be the first formal nuclear talks between the US and Iran since September 2022.
