Daily Market Update

Tag: Political

September 2025
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The USD index (DXY) fell to around 103 on Tuesday, retreating from recent gains as trade uncertainties continued to weigh on the economic and inflation outlook. President Trump denied rumors of a tariff pause but showed willingness to negotiate with trade partners. The US and China tensions escalated as Trump threatened additional tariffs, with China vowing to defend its interests. Investors are awaiting this week’s inflation data to shape expectations for future Fed rate cuts.

April 8, 2025

Serbia’s president Vucic has nominated outsider candidate Djuro Macut to be the next prime minister, following the resignation of PM Vucevic in January. This decision is an effort to quell student protests, which have taken place since November. Mr Macut does not have any previous political experience, though is known for his background in medicine and as a university lecturer.

April 8, 2025

Crude oil prices dropped 7.4% to USD 62 per barrel, marking its lowest level since August 2021. The steep decline comes amid fears of a global economic slowdown and weakening oil demand, exacerbated by escalating trade tensions, particularly with China’s 34% tariff on US goods. Despite a planned OPEC+ output boost, oil prices are under pressure due to trade turmoil.

April 7, 2025

The Brazilian real weakened past 5.82 per USD, reversing its previous gains. Escalating trade tensions, including China’s retaliatory tariffs, have heightened fears of a global slowdown, driving down commodity prices and eroding Brazil’s export outlook. While Brazil initially benefited from limited exposure to US tariffs, the broader global trade deterioration has clouded its economic outlook.

April 7, 2025

President Zelensky has said a ceasefire in Ukraine is possible within weeks if the West exerts enough pressure on Russia to comply. The President also commented that while Ukraine would never recognize Russian-occupied territory as part of Russia, the return of some land through diplomacy may be a necessary compromise. Separately, PM Shmyhal has said the country will require an additional USD 10 bln of funding this year to meet its recovery needs.

April 4, 2025

Crude oil prices rose to around USD 71.6/barrel on Tuesday, continuing a two-day gain and nearing a one-month high. The rise is fueled by concerns over potential supply disruptions following President Trump’s threats against Russia and Iran. Trump threatened to impose 25%-50% secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil and also warned of bombing Iran unless it agrees to renounce its nuclear weapons program. Traders are also bracing for further tariff announcements, raising concerns about their economic impact and potential effects on oil demand.

April 1, 2025

US President Trump said he is “very angry” at Vladimir Putin for stalling the Ukraine ceasefire plan, and threatened secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian oil in response. Trump continued putting pressure on President Zelensky to agree to a resources deal. Ukraine’s bonds fell in response, as investors reduced expectations of a peace agreement being made.

April 1, 2025

Serbia’s industrial production fell 1.8% YoY in February, down from a 0.4% expansion in January. Meanwhile, President Vucic has said the economy probably grew 3% YoY in the first quarter of 2025, and that growth has slowed because of protests.

April 1, 2025

Brazilian President Lula da Silva is set to meet with Russia’s Putin in Moscow and China’s Jinping in Beijing in May. This marks his first official trip to Moscow and second visit to China during his third nonconsecutive term. Lula previously visited Russia twice and China three times during his earlier presidencies (2003-2010). These meetings come as global trade tensions rise following President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.

April 1, 2025

Ukrainian President Zelensky said on Friday that Kyiv has received from the US a new proposal for a minerals deal, which is said to include more stringent demands. Meanwhile, analysts commented that Russia is testing to see how far President Trump is willing to push Europe to ease sanctions on Russia. Finally, the IMF has completed an EFF review of Ukraine, enabling disbursement of about USD 400 mln in budget support.

March 31, 2025

Sanctions on Serbia’s national oil and gas company NIS have been postponed for a further 30 days, according to President Vucic. NIS is majority owned by Russia’s Gazpromneft, and the US previously announced sanctions would be implemented, unless the ownership structure of NIS is changed.

March 31, 2025

Lebanon appointed Karim Souaid as the new central bank governor. Souaid, a former HSBC banker, is tasked with leading Lebanon’s economic overhaul. Tensions emerged as Souaid was not unanimously chosen by ministers, and PM Nawaf Salam urged him to focus on protecting depositors’ funds and restructuring local banks. Lebanon’s economy has suffered from multiple crises, including the 2020 default. The country’s USD 750 mln bonds maturing in 2037 have fallen in value due to growing concerns over the country’s financial stability.

March 31, 2025

Moody’s downgraded Mozambique’s local-currency long-term issuer rating to Caa3, citing severe liquidity challenges due to difficulties in refinancing debt and fiscal pressures exacerbated by political and social unrest following the October elections. The foreign-currency rating was affirmed at Caa2, with expectations that Mozambique will prioritize Eurobond repayments. The government’s debt service remains manageable until the Eurobond matures, providing time for a repayment strategy, with support from an LNG project restart or further IMF engagement.

March 31, 2025

South Africa’s Democratic Alliance (DA) criticized the African National Congress (ANC) for refusing to share control of economic policy, which could cause the collapse of the government of national unity. Tensions arose from a proposal by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana to raise VAT by two pp, which was opposed by the DA and other factions within the ANC. Godongwana later proposed a single pp increase by 2026, but he has yet to secure legislative support for the measure.

March 31, 2025

European leaders gathered in Paris on Thursday for a summit on Ukraine, where they ruled out easing sanctions on Russia, one of President Putin’s demands to agree to a partial ceasefire. European leaders are discussing new ways to support Ukraine, including financial and military support. Meanwhile, the US is pushing for a partnership deal with Ukraine that would give it control over major investment projects, over other allied countries.

March 28, 2025

Myanmar’s junta chief Min Aung Hlaing will visit Thailand next week for a regional leaders’ summit, where he is also expected to meet bilaterally with Indian leader Narendra Modi and Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. The summit will focus on adopting the Bimstec Bangkok Vision 2030 agreement and signing a declaration outlining long-term goals for economic cooperation and regional security.

March 28, 2025

Mozambique’s central bank has reduced its benchmark interest rate to 11.75% from 12.25%, continuing its longest easing cycle since 2017. This comes amid slight inflation acceleration to 4.7%, and a 4.9% GDP contraction in Q4 2024 due to post-election unrest. Mozambique is facing a foreign-exchange shortage with a USD 373 mln backlog and delays in IMF program approvals. S&P Global Ratings downgraded Mozambique’s domestic currency debt to selective default due to a distressed debt swap.

March 27, 2025

Ukrainian Defense Minister Umerov says talks with US officials in Riyadh were successful, and that his country is ready to organize technical discussions on the implementation of a partial truce. The US announced earlier that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a ceasefire in the Black Sea. Moscow confirmed the agreement, but said it was conditional on sanctions relief, which had not been mentioned in US statements. The agreement also included a 30-day truce against strikes on energy infrastructure.

March 26, 2025

Serbian President Vucic has said there are three to four potential candidates to be the next Prime Minister, following the formal resignation of PM Vucevic last week. The President has until April 17 to announce a new cabinet, in order to avoid early parliamentary elections. Serbians have been protesting since November last year, against government corruption and mismanagement.

March 25, 2025

Angola raised diesel prices by 50%, the second increase this year, following IMF recommendations to remove fuel subsidies. While the government can now increase spending on other sectors, this move may increase transport costs and affect the population, especially those living on less than USD 2 a day. The price hike has been met with opposition from truck drivers, and a similar decision in 2023 to cut gasoline subsidies triggered protests, resulting in violent clashes.

March 25, 2025

President Donald Trump has threatened to impose 25% “secondary tariffs” on countries that purchase oil from Venezuela, aiming to block its oil trade with other nations. This move targets countries like China, which plays a significant role in the black market for Venezuelan oil. The measure is seen as a new form of economic warfare, with Venezuela already facing heavy US sanctions.

March 25, 2025

Crude oil prices fell to USD 68.1/barrel amid concerns over increased supply from Russia and efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war. U.S. and Russian officials were scheduled for talks, aiming to negotiate a ceasefire and reduce violence. Additionally, OPEC+ plans to increase production by 138,000 barrels per day starting next month. Market sentiment was further weighed down by concerns over U.S. trade policies and sanctions on Iran, which could impact oil market dynamics.

March 24, 2025

Albania’s credit rating has been upgraded from BB- to BB by S&P Ratings, with a stable outlook. Strong foreign direct investment, remittances, and services exports, are assessed to underpin the country’s strong economic prospects. However, political and geopolitical risk is heightened, also ahead of parliamentary elections this year.

March 24, 2025

Israel’s cabinet has approved PM Netanyahu’s decision to fire domestic intelligence chief Ronen Bar. This move has sparked widespread protests and criticism, with opponents accusing Netanyahu of undermining checks and balances and threatening Israeli democracy.

March 24, 2025

S&P affirmed Cameroon’s B-/B ratings with a stable outlook. The projected GDP growth for Cameroon is 4.3% from 2025 to 2028, driven by increased gas and mining production, ongoing industrialization, and favorable export prices for gold and cocoa. However, there are risks to these economic forecasts, including global geopolitical tensions, institutional weaknesses, and climate-related events like flooding.

March 24, 2025

Israel’s cabinet has approved PM Netanyahu’s decision to fire domestic intelligence chief Ronen Bar. This move has sparked widespread protests and criticism, with opponents accusing Netanyahu of undermining checks and balances and threatening Israeli democracy. Bar will step down on April 10 or earlier if a successor is appointed, with the government citing a “misunderstanding of the subordination of the service and its head to the political echelon.”

March 21, 2025

Guatemala’s government has vowed not to back down from its new law requiring vehicle owners to purchase insurance covering harm caused to others in the event of an accident. This law, set to take effect on May 1, has sparked violent protests and road blockages across the country. Protesters are opposing the law, while the government argues that the reforms are necessary to compensate victims of road accidents.

March 20, 2025

Colombian Finance Minister Diego Guevara resigned after three months in office, following a conversation with President Gustavo Petro. This has raised concerns among investors due to Guevara’s role as a fiscal responsibility defender. The Colombian government now faces a need to cut its 2025 budget by COP 12 tln after a failed attempt to raise taxes.

March 19, 2025

Hundreds of thousands of protesters took to the streets of Belgrade, Serbia, over the weekend, against the government of President Vucic, which was the largest protest in decades. The protests started only with students, but have gained momentum, with activists demanding action against government mismanagement and corruption.

March 18, 2025

Experts are optimistic about Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2025, projecting growth rates averaging 4%. Despite challenges such as high public debt and reliance on crude oil exports, fiscal discipline and policy reforms are seen as crucial for stabilization. Nigeria’s total factor productivity has turned positive after a decade of negative growth, helping reduce recession risks. Nigeria’s GDP is estimated between USD 228 bln and USD 300 bln, with potential for USD 400-500 bln after rebasing.

March 18, 2025
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