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India’s trade secretary reports positive progress in trade talks with the US, aiming for a positive outcome by fall 2025. India has been making concessions, including lowering levies on American goods, and is also pursuing free trade agreements with the EU and UK. India is considering imposing a safeguard duty on steel to protect its domestic industry and plans to conclude trade deals with the EU and UK in the near future.
Hundreds of thousands of protesters took to the streets of Belgrade, Serbia, over the weekend, against the government of President Vucic, which was the largest protest in decades. The protests started only with students, but have gained momentum, with activists demanding action against government mismanagement and corruption.
Experts are optimistic about Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2025, projecting growth rates averaging 4%. Despite challenges such as high public debt and reliance on crude oil exports, fiscal discipline and policy reforms are seen as crucial for stabilization. Nigeria’s total factor productivity has turned positive after a decade of negative growth, helping reduce recession risks. Nigeria’s GDP is estimated between USD 228 bln and USD 300 bln, with potential for USD 400-500 bln after rebasing.
The Peruvian government plans to declare a state of emergency and deploy the military to combat rising crime in Lima after the murder of Paul Flores, a vocalist in a popular cumbia band, fueled protests against extortion rackets. These rackets have been impacting various sectors, including public transportation, shops, and schools. Despite ongoing protests, President Dina Boluarte’s administration has struggled to effectively address the situation.
Serbia’s central bank held interest rates at 5.75%, in line with economist expectations. The bank noted that inflation has stabilized around the top end of its 1.5-4.5% target range, while citing concerns over global geopolitical and trade risk.
Bolivia’s President Arce announced a series of measures to address the country’s severe fuel shortage, including removing lunch breaks for bureaucrats, reducing in-person schooling, and cutting back on the use of the public car fleet. These steps were introduced in response to months of protests, with people blocking roads and hindering fuel deliveries, exacerbating the country’s already struggling economy.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei rejected US President Trump’s calls for nuclear talks, dismissing them as a “trick” and citing the failed Obama-era deal. Khamenei stated that talks would not lead to sanctions relief but would tighten the sanctions further.
President Rahmon of Tajikistan will visit Kyrgyzstan over the coming days and is expected to sign a bilateral border delineation agreement between the two countries. A trilateral summit between the presidents of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan is planned for the end of the month also.
Iraq’s Parliamentary Oil and Gas Committee revealed that the country is taking measures to cover its gas needs from Gulf States, as US sanctions end the waiver that allowed Iraq to import gas from Iran to operate power plants.
The Israeli army has deployed additional troops and conducted extensive searches along the Jordanian border after reports of suspicious movements near the border fence, particularly near the Neot HaKikar settlement. Tensions have increased, with claims of foiled smuggling operations from Jordan.
Peru is sending a delegation to the US to address new copper tariffs announced by the Trump administration. Peru aims to minimize the impact of tariffs, highlighting its free trade agreements with the US and its role as the world’s third-largest copper supplier. The country emphasizes openness to investment and trade with all nations.
US sanctions on Russia’s tanker fleet are facing challenges, with blacklisted vessels loading and shipping Russian crude. Crude flows from Russian ports rose by 300,000 barrels per day in the four weeks to March 9, reaching 3.37 million barrels, the highest since November 2023. If President Trump reverses Biden’s sanctions, it may ease Russia’s difficulties in exporting oil, particularly to India, which was a major destination for Russian Arctic crude.
Thailand’s government plans additional fiscal stimulus measures to drive economic growth beyond 3% in 2025, focusing on exports, tourism, and long-term structural challenges. A key initiative includes a 10,000 baht handout to 2.7 mln Thai citizens aged 16-20 through a digital wallet application as part of the government’s flagship scheme.
Moldova’s sovereign credit rating has been affirmed by Fitch at B+ with stable outlook. The agency highlighted that macroeconomic and financial policy management has guided the country through a series of potentially destabilizing shocks, though domestic and regional geopolitical risks remain high. Further, inflation in Moldova slowed to 8.6% YoY in February, down from 9.1% in January.
US President Trump urged Iran to negotiate a new nuclear deal, offering diplomacy over military action but warning of potential conflict. Iran’s leadership, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, reiterated opposition to talks while continuing to face US sanctions. Trump has also sought Russian assistance in communicating with Tehran on the nuclear issue.
Mongolia’s central bank has raised interest rates from 10.0% to 12.0%, in an effort to combat inflationary and geopolitical risks. Inflation is expected to rise faster this year, and the central bank warned that major domestic project financing could negatively impact the balance of payment position, and the currency.
Egypt’s foreign currency reserves rose to USD 47.39 bln by February, driven by a $128.6 million increase and growth in gold reserves. PM Mostafa Madbouly expects further growth in foreign currency revenues, with expectations for higher Suez Canal revenues in Q2 2024 as regional tensions ease.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk highlighted the completion of the USD 2.5 bln East Shield defense project, an 800-kilometer stretch of barriers along Poland’s border with Russia. The project aims to fortify European defense, though officials note that the continent’s front-line defenses are limited without US support. The EU is also discussing long-term fiscal rule reforms to boost defense spending.
In Bosnia-Herzegovina, the leader of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, has banned police and courts from the country’s central government from operating within the territory he governs. The legislation, which takes effect today, challenges the authority of the central government in Sarajevo and it likely to increase tensions in the country.
Microsoft announced a USD 298 mln investment in AI and data center infrastructure in South Africa, alongside a commitment to provide training in AI, cybersecurity, and cloud architecture. President Cyril Ramaphosa welcomed the investment as crucial for South Africa’s growth, especially as it prepares to host the G20 summit in November 2025.
US President Trump defended his tariff policy, claiming it would raise significant revenue and rebalance trade, despite acknowledging potential economic pain. His speech focused on issues like transgender rights and border security, with little mention of inflation. While stock futures indicated a recovery, the tariffs on Mexico and Canada were still a major concern. Democratic protests during his address were overshadowed by Republican reactions.
President Xi Jinping affirmed China’s determination to meet its 2025 growth target of 5%, despite potential further tariffs from President Trump. Analysts warn that China may need substantial stimulus to achieve its goal, which could worsen its debt. Officials are considering fiscal stimulus or currency devaluation as options, as the country sets a target for three consecutive years of 5% growth, despite escalating US tariffs.
Mozambique’s government faces pressure from both protesters demanding action on high living costs and the IMF, which urges fiscal restraint. President Daniel Chapo has extended VAT exemptions on basic goods to appease tensions, but this threatens government revenue and conflicts with an IMF-backed program that could secure USD 120 mln in financing. The economy contracted by 4.9% in Q4 2024, resulting in 1.9% full-year growth. Growth is expected to rebound to 3% in 2025, with inflation stabilizing at 7%.
Strict exchange controls in Argentina continue to impede foreign investment, with few signs of a quick unwinding of the rules. The government has recently tightened restrictions, which are expected to remain until the country’s midterm elections. Lifting these controls is key to negotiations with the IMF for a new program, succeeding the current USD 44 bln deal set to expire in December. Foreign investors face restrictions on currency purchases and must deposit dollars obtained through securities in mandatory bank accounts.
Bolivian Former president Evo Morales resigned from the ruling MAS party. This comes amid an all-out clash with President Arce, and after an electoral court passed over control of the party to the rival Arcista faction last year. Still, Evo remains fully committed to running in the presidential election scheduled for mid-August, ignoring the ban on him imposed by a ruling from the constitutional court, increasing the chances that the party will arrive diverged to the presidential election.
The USD index stabilized around 105.6 on Wednesday after falling nearly 2% over the past two days. Investors focused on President Trump’s joint address to Congress, where he reiterated his positions on trade, taxation, and foreign policy. The euro strengthened due to Germany’s plans for a EUR 500 bln infrastructure fund and increased defense spending. Additionally, new US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China fueled concerns over potential economic repercussions, contributing to the escalating global trade war.
President Trump has now said he thinks a deal over mineral revenues in Ukraine could still be possible, following an acrimonious meeting last week with President Zelensky in Washington. On Sunday, European leaders met for an emergency summit in London, to try and agree a common diplomatic and military strategy for Ukraine, with the UK leading a plan for a “coalition of the willing” to provide security guarantees.
OPEC+ plans to increase production in April, a move seen as bearish, with Citigroup forecasting Brent crude to fall to USD 60-65/bbl in the next 6-12 months. The decision was more aggressive than expected, though the group may adjust supply increments based on market conditions. Increased OPEC+ production could give the US more room for sanctions on Iran and Venezuela.
The IMF and Ukraine reached a deal on a loan program review, unlocking around USD 400 mln, more than three years after Russia’s invasion. This agreement follows a visit by Ukrainian President Zelenskyy to Washington, where tensions between him and Trump flared during their Oval Office meeting. The IMF praised Ukraine’s reforms under a USD 15.5 bln loan program.
Serbian President Vucic said his country’s national oil company NIS has been given a one-month-reprieve from US sanctions. NIS is majority owned by Russia’s Gazpromneft, and has been threatened with the imposition of US sanctions. Analysts commented that this development was expected, though an important relief from near-term risk.
