Daily Market Update

Tag: Political

September 2025
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Crude oil prices hovered below USD 69/barrel, driven by concerns over higher supply and weak demand. Expectations of eased Russian sanctions could boost global oil supply, while a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal added to pressure. Trump’s tariffs on China and other partners raised fears of slower economic growth, further weakening demand. Oil prices also faced pressure from Trump’s plan to revoke Chevron’s oil license in Venezuela and Iraq’s agreement with Kurdistan to resume crude exports, though no timeline was provided. Oil is set for its largest monthly decline since September.

February 27, 2025

The G-20 finance ministers and central bankers are meeting in Cape Town, South Africa, amid growing trade tensions, particularly due to tariffs imposed by the US. The US Treasury Secretary’s absence raises concerns about the Trump administration’s priorities and its focus on domestic issues over global prosperity. The meeting comes amid geopolitical turmoil, slow growth, rising debt, and inequality, with leaders urging multilateral cooperation to address these challenges.

February 27, 2025

Mozambique extended the VAT exemption on essential goods, including sugar, cooking oil, and soap, until the end of 2025 to ease consumer spending pressures. The measure, part of efforts to curb inflation-driven protests, still needs parliamentary approval. The protests, which began after elections in October, have led to infrastructure destruction and road blockades in major urban centers.

February 27, 2025

Uganda’s economy is projected to grow by 6.2% in the 2024/2025 fiscal year, driven by oil production and government spending. Risks include delays in oil production and election-related expenditures. Inflation is expected to remain within target, but vulnerable to external pressures. Public debt is set to rise slightly to 52% of GDP as government spending increases ahead of the 2026 elections.

February 27, 2025

The Trump administration is intensifying efforts to limit China’s technological growth, including tougher semiconductor curbs. It is focusing on sanctions against specific Chinese companies and tighter restrictions on AI chip exports. The goal is to prevent China from developing a domestic semiconductor industry that could enhance its AI and military capabilities.

February 26, 2025

Officials in Serbia have ruled out nationalization of the oil company NIS, as it prepares for final negotiations with the US over impending sanctions, because of NIS being majority owned by Russian GazProm. The sanctions are due to come into force on February 27, unless the two sides restructure the ownership.

February 26, 2025

A trilateral summit between Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan is planned for 31 March, focused on state borders, energy, and infrastructure cooperation, it has been reported. This follows a recent agreement on border demarcation between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

February 26, 2025

The Trump administration is intensifying efforts to limit China’s technological growth, including tougher semiconductor curbs. It is focusing on sanctions against specific Chinese companies and tighter restrictions on AI chip exports. The goal is to prevent China from developing a domestic semiconductor industry that could enhance its AI and military capabilities.

February 26, 2025

Officials in Serbia have ruled out nationalization of the oil company NIS, as it prepares for final negotiations with the US over impending sanctions, because of NIS being majority owned by Russian GazProm. The sanctions are due to come into force on February 27, unless the two sides restructure the ownership.

February 26, 2025

A trilateral summit between Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan is planned for 31 March, focused on state borders, energy, and infrastructure cooperation, it has been reported. This follows a recent agreement on border demarcation between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

February 26, 2025

The EUR rose 0.5% to above USD 1.05 after Germany’s conservative Christian Democrats secured an election win. Investors are focused on coalition formation and the potential for fiscal reforms, given Germany’s economic stagnation, the Ukraine conflict, and trade tensions with the US.

February 24, 2025

Crude oil prices dropped to USD 70.1/barrel, continuing last week’s decline. This was driven by expectations of resumed exports from Kurdistan’s oilfields and potential easing of sanctions on Russian oil. Additionally, the Gaza ceasefire faces challenges, with Hamas accusing Israel of jeopardizing the truce by delaying prisoner releases.

February 24, 2025

Indonesia launched a new sovereign wealth fund aimed at managing over USD 900 bln in state assets. President Prabowo Subianto intends to boost annual economic growth from 5% to 8%, despite recent protests over government cuts. The fund’s scope, including which state-owned companies it will manage, remains unspecified but is expected to play a significant role in boosting the country’s economic growth.

February 24, 2025

Kenya reached a USD 1.5 bln loan agreement with the UAE at an 8.2% interest rate to ease fiscal pressures. The loan is expected to be received in one tranche by the end of February, helping the country address financing challenges following the abandonment of tax hikes due to public protests.

February 24, 2025

Mozambique’s economy contracted by 4.9% in Q4, the largest decline in seven years, due to post-election protests. These protests disrupted business, worsened government revenue, and contributed to a credit rating downgrade. A potential distressed debt exchange may follow if commercial lenders meet to discuss maturing local currency securities.

February 24, 2025

GCC leaders, along with Jordan’s King Abdullah II and Egypt’s President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi, will meet in Riyadh for unofficial talks initiated by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman. The agenda will focus on joint Arab action, with decisions to be included in the upcoming Extraordinary Arab Summit in Egypt.

February 20, 2025

Egypt’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged at a record high, maintaining the deposit rate at 27.25% and the lending rate at 28.25%. The decision reflects caution amid economic uncertainty, including US trade tariffs and the proposal to relocate Palestinians from Gaza. Despite expectations of easing, high inflation and geopolitical risks complicate the timing.

February 20, 2025

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa aims to resolve tensions with the US after a snub by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who protested South Africa’s stance on diversity, equity, inclusion, and climate change. Ramaphosa invited Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy for a state visit.

February 20, 2025

The EUR traded around USD 1.045 as traders assessed the impact of rising defense spending, US tariffs, and geopolitical tensions. European governments met in Paris to discuss support strategies for Ukraine, but no concrete measures were agreed upon. Trump’s planned 25% tariffs on automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals could harm European carmakers. The ECB is expected to cut its deposit rate by 25 bps at the next three meetings, with rates potentially falling below 2% by 2026.

February 20, 2025

S&P downgraded Mozambique’s long-term local currency debt rating to CCC- from CCC, while affirming its foreign currency rating at CCC+. The outlook has been changed to negative due to increased fiscal pressures following post-election protests.

February 20, 2025

On Monday, American and Russian officials met in Riyadh for talks on the Ukraine war, without any Ukrainian officials present at the meeting. The meeting marked a shift in the US approach, which has caused fracture with European allies and Ukraine. A summit between Trump and Putin may be scheduled later.

February 19, 2025

Rwanda has suspended development cooperation with Belgium amid tensions over Rwanda’s role in the DRC conflict. Belgium accuses Rwanda of supporting rebels in eastern Congo, which Rwanda denies. The suspension affects the 2024-2029 bilateral aid program, totaling EUR 95 mln.

February 19, 2025

On Tuesday, US and Russian officials are set to meet in Saudi Arabia to start talks on ending the Russia-Ukraine war, and prepare a potential summit between the two leaders of Ukraine and Russia. President Trump also commented that President Zelensky will be involved in peace talks with Russia, after some doubts were raised previously. Further, Ukraine’s economy grew 1.5% YoY in January, supported by construction and trade.

February 18, 2025

Rwanda-backed M23 rebels captured Kavumu airport in South Kivu, expanding their control over the mineral-rich region of eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. The capture follows the seizure of Goma, leading to significant casualties. President Tshisekedi calls for international sanctions against Rwanda and EU sanctions on Rwandan minerals.

February 17, 2025

Moody’s warns that rising tensions with the US could hinder South Africa’s economic recovery, especially if it affects trade or foreign investment sentiment. South Africa exported USD 14.6 bln to the US in 2024, with 28% benefiting from duty-free access. Moody’s forecasts 1.7% growth in 2025 and 2026, up from 0.6% in 2024.

February 17, 2025

In Serbia, the central bank has left interest rates unchanged at 5.75%, in line with expectations, amid concerns over domestic and global political tensions, and global trade. Inflation has slowed to within the central bank’s target range, though volatile food and energy prices have kept it towards the upper boundary of this range.

February 14, 2025

Israel will maintain control of five strategic positions inside Lebanon after the ceasefire deadline next Tuesday, pending Lebanon’s compliance with ceasefire commitments. This partial withdrawal could risk reigniting tensions with Hezbollah and complicate Lebanon’s efforts to establish authority, especially during Israel’s fragile truce with Hamas.

February 14, 2025

China’s 10-year government bond yield edged higher to around 1.64% as investors reacted to escalating global trade tensions. The US signaled that reciprocal tariffs on Chinese goods could be announced soon, but Trump highlighted his positive relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping, which could potentially delay further tariffs.

February 13, 2025

Ukraine is looking to take action with the US government to secure relief from planned US steel tariffs of 25%, before they come into effect on March 12, First Deputy Prime Minister Svyrydenko has said. EU chief Antonio Costa said his organization will hold its first Central Asia summit in April, as Europe intensifies efforts to counter Russian influence in the region. The EU is looking to extend ties with resource-rich countries such as Kazakhstan. The meeting will take place in Uzbekistan in April.

February 13, 2025

Namibia’s central bank reduced its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 6.75%, citing stable inflation and slow economic growth. The country’s economy faces risks from escalating US-South Africa tensions due to its economic ties with both nations. Economic growth is forecast to accelerate to 4% in 2025, up from 3.5% in 2024, with international reserves expected to reach 65 billion Namibian dollars by January’s end.

February 13, 2025
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